858
AXNT20 KNHC 191812
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JUN 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 48W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED TO NEAR 69W FROM SOUTH OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND
NEAR THE VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA BORDER.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL
SOUTH OF DAKAR THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N35W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 07N35W TO 08N46W AND THEN FROM 08N50W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 10N AND WEST OF 21W. REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A PERIPHERAL RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ERICK AT THE
COAST OF OAXACA STATE, MEXICO IS CAUSING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFF VERACRUZ, MEXICO IN THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH
DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND WEST- CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS WESTWARD
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND WEST-CENTAL GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EAST- CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SSE WINDS WITH 3 TO 5
FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
HURRICANE ERICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY FRI. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A DIURNAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1025 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 28N69W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A ROBUST
TRADE-WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVERGENT SE
WINDS ARE CREATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE BASIN. STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT ARE OCCURRING AT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 FT
TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA
AT NIGHT. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES AND MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVERGENT SW WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 33W
ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
35W AND 48W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES
SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES WESTWARD
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N33W TO A BERMUDA NEAR 28N69W. THESE
FEATURES ARE DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 28N AND
BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA COAST WIT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 3
TO 5 FT SEAS. TO THE SOUTH FROM 08N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINING ATLANTIC
WATERS WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ALONG 29N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL
PULSE JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AT NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
CHAN
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