363
AXNT20 KNHC 192325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FLARING UP FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 50W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG
THE WAVE'S AXIS.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 70W FROM SOUTH OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND NEAR THE VENEZUELA-
COLOMBIA BORDER.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG 14N17W TO 10N23W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM THAT POINT TO 09N32W, THEN RESUMES W
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N37W TO 09N47W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN 18W-26W, AND ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 37W-47W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A PERIPHERAL RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW T.S. ERICK AT THE
COAST OF OAXACA STATE, MEXICO IS CAUSING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OFF VERACRUZ, MEXICO IN THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS COUPLING WITH
DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND WEST-CENTRAL GULF. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS WESTWARD
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTAL GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SSE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK
OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO WILL AFFECT THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI.
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A
DIURNAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
BASIN.
A 1023 MB BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N66W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
A ROBUST TRADE-WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. CONVERGENT
SE WINDS ARE CREATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT
AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES AND
SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA, EXCEPT
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
BASIN.
CONVERGENT SW WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 33W
ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
34W AND 40W. A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES WESTWARD
FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N34W TO A BERMUDA NEAR 28N66W. THESE
FEATURES ARE DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND
BETWEEN 25W AND 75W WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
TO THE SOUTH FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS/LESSER
ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EVIDENT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINING ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ALONG 28N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
ERA
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