759
AXNT20 KNHC 200413
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0413 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA INTO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 20W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 03N TO
09N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 27.5W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 36W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 04N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 71W FROM SOUTH OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA, MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND NEAR THE VENEZUELA- COLOMBIA BORDER.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG 13N17W AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM THAT
POINT TO 08N32W, THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N38W TO
08N48W. CONVECTION NEAR THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A PERIPHERAL RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW T.D. ERICK OVER THE
OAXACA STATE, MEXICO, IS CAUSING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO PRESENT OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FLORIDA AS AFTERNOON LAND CONVECTION DRIFTS TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AS IT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS WESTWARD FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO NEAR THE TEXAS- MEXICO BORDER. MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTAL GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SSE WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, RESIDUAL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK WILL LINGER OVER THE
WESTERN AND SW GULF ZONES THROUGH SAT LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS. OTHERWISE, FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A DIURNAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
BASIN.
A 1030 MB NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41.5N40W CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A ROBUST TRADE-WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.
CONVERGENT SE WINDS ARE CREATING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING AT THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PRESENT AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADES AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA, EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SLIGHT SEAS NEAR COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
BASIN.
CONVERGENT SW WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32W
ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
30W AND 45W. A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES WESTWARD
FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 42.5N40W. THESE FEATURES ARE DOMINATING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 23N AND BETWEEN 22W AND 77W WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. TO THE SOUTH FROM 07.5N
TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 35W, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OFF OF DAKAR AND NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
ALONG 29N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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