436
AXNT20 KNHC 201745
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JUN 20 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM JUST SOUTH
OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W.
THE POSITION OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO NEAR 42W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 06N TO
11N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 53W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.
THE POSITION OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO NEAR 73W FROM JUST SOUTH OF HAITI SOUTHWARD TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR HISPANIOLA AND IN THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N27W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N27W TO 10N39W, THEN FROM 09N43W TO
10N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF. CONVERGENT SE WINDS ARE
COUPLING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AT THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. MODERATE
TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A MODEST 1021
MB HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS AT THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE
WINDS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT,
SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A DIURNAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIMINISHING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR CONVECTION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1023 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 29N69W CONTINUES TO
SUSTAIN A ROBUST TRADE-WIND REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. FRESH
TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, NORTH OF 18N. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT PERSIST NEAR COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL PROLONG FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ORIGINATED FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN TWO
PLACES NORTH OF 27N, BETWEEN 54W AND 64W, AND BETWEEN 34W AND 49W.
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS MADEIRA AND 31N20W TO 27N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT
THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N35W TO A 1023 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 29N69W. THESE
FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING MOSTLY GENTLE NE TO SE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6
FT SEAS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COAST. TO THE SOUTH FROM 08N TO 23N BETWEEN THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS AND BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO FRESH NNE TO ESE
WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT DOMINATE. NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS,
MODERATE TO FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT
SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 30W. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 10W, GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF 25N OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
CHAN
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