943  
AXNT20 KNHC 271016  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC FRI JUN 27 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0900 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN:  
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES THAT ARE  
DESCRIBED BELOW AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO TONIGHT.  
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,  
ESPECIALLY IN HILLY TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL  
GUIDANCE, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE  
NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA AND IN NORTHERN HONDURAS. PLEASE  
REFER TO THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES IN THE REGION FOR MORE  
INFORMATION.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD,  
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN  
NEAR THIS WAVE.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 52W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,  
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED  
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.  
 
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING  
WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS EVIDENT NEAR THE COAST SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN  
HONDURAS.  
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN  
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EAST  
PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE IS  
CONFINED TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS INTO THE ATLANTIC AT THE COAST OF  
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W, THEN CURVES SW TO 09N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS  
FROM 08N37W TO 08N46W AND FROM 08N54W TO 08N60W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ.  
 
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA  
AND COLOMBIA.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA  
COAST HAS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
ALONG A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST FROM  
TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ. OTHERWISE, MODEST RIDGING IS DOMINATING MOST  
OF THE GULF INDUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS. SE ARE 2 TO 4 FT,  
EXCEPT LESS THAN 2 FT IN THE NE GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT WILL MOVE WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. LOW  
PRESSURE MAY THEN FORM OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER.  
OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE  
EACH EVENING AND NIGHT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE  
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT  
INDUCED BY A THERMAL TROUGH.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND  
CENTRAL AMERICA.  
 
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE CREATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
IN THE LEE OF WESTERN CUBA AND NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. REFER TO  
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS INFORMATION ON  
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE BASIN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N66W AND LOWER PRESSURE  
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SUSTAINING STRONG TO  
NEAR GALE FORCE EAST WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT  
DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN,  
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR- GALE  
FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, WITH ROUGH SEAS.  
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N62W IS TRIGGERING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE  
CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. REFER TO THE  
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR  
INFORMATION ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE BASIN. RIDGING  
DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY THE 1028 MB AZORES HIGH  
CENTERED NEAR 34N30W AND A WEAKER 1021 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR  
28N66W. THIS IS LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF  
35W. TO THE S AND E, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE, WITH SOME  
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS.  
SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN THE TRADEWIND BELT AND AROUND THE CANARY  
ISLANDS, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED  
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S  
OF 25N. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS  
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
 
 
KONARIK  
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