943
AXNT20 KNHC 271016
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI JUN 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN:
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES THAT ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN HILLY TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA AND IN NORTHERN HONDURAS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES IN THE REGION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 35W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN
NEAR THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 52W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT NEAR THE COAST SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EAST
PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE IS
CONFINED TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS INTO THE ATLANTIC AT THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W, THEN CURVES SW TO 09N31W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N37W TO 08N46W AND FROM 08N54W TO 08N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA
COAST HAS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST FROM
TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ. OTHERWISE, MODEST RIDGING IS DOMINATING MOST
OF THE GULF INDUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS. SE ARE 2 TO 4 FT,
EXCEPT LESS THAN 2 FT IN THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL MOVE WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE MAY THEN FORM OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER.
OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
EACH EVENING AND NIGHT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
INDUCED BY A THERMAL TROUGH.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.
CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE CREATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IN THE LEE OF WESTERN CUBA AND NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS INFORMATION ON
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE BASIN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N66W AND LOWER PRESSURE
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SUSTAINING STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE EAST WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN,
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR- GALE
FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, WITH ROUGH SEAS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N62W IS TRIGGERING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR
INFORMATION ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE BASIN. RIDGING
DOMINATES MOST OF THE BASIN, ANCHORED BY THE 1028 MB AZORES HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N30W AND A WEAKER 1021 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR
28N66W. THIS IS LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF
35W. TO THE S AND E, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE, WITH SOME
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN THE TRADEWIND BELT AND AROUND THE CANARY
ISLANDS, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S
OF 25N. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page