061
AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN:
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS DESCRIBED BELOW
AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN HILLY TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA AND IN NORTHERN HONDURAS.
ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
BELIZE, GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO THE RECENT FORMATION OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICES IN THE REGION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
06N TO 19N, AND WITH AXIS NEAR 19W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF SAHARAN DRY AIR.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 02N TO
13N WITH AXIS NEAR 37W, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE
IS ALSO NOT ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 06N
TO 20N WITH AXIS NEAR 56W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 49W AND 59W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
COAST OF GAMBIA NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N25W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 07N35W. IT
RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N37W TO 06N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA, COSTA
RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THE PRESENT
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS E OF 87W, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS W
OF 92W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN
ADDITION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSUALA TO 24N. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE
BASIN-WIDE WITH PEAK SEAS OF 6 FT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OFF YUCATAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INLAND
OVER MEXICO, ENDING ITS CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE,
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE
TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES OFFSHORE COLOMBIA S OF 13N. SEAS WITH
THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN, THUS RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS THERE ARE 7
FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ONGOING ALSO IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN THROUGH SAT. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, WITH ROUGH SEAS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE AZORES AND BERMUDA HIGHS ASSOCIATED RIDGES COVERS THE ENTIRE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, LIGHT TO GENTLE
VARIABLE WINDS ARE N OF 23N AND W OF 35W. SOUTH OF 23N, WINDS ARE
MAILY MODERATE FROM THE NE TO E, EXCEPT N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 6 FT ARE ONGOING. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURING BETWEEN 35W AND THE COAST OF
W AFRICA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURING NEARBY THE CANARY
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
ALONG THE SEABOARD OF FLORIDA, REACHING EASTWARD TO NEAR 78W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S
OF 25N. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
RAMOS
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