630  
AXNT20 KNHC 281017  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0930 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE (INVEST AL91):  
LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB CENTERED INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N92W IS  
PRODUCING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL  
AMERICA, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN  
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE NW YUCATAN  
PENINSULA. THIS BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SW YUCATAN  
PENINSULA THIS MORNING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW AND SOME TROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW. A  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER  
EASTERN MEXICO MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL  
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY  
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO ALONG WITH  
ADJACENT PARTS OF THE GULF, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND  
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING  
AND MUDSLIDES, PARTICULARLY IN HILLY TERRAIN. THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL IS FORECAST IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ, SAN LUIS  
POTOSI AND TAMAULIPAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICES  
IN THE REGION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL  
POTENTIAL. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT  
OF THIS SYSTEM, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER  
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT:  
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV .  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 23W ACROSS THE  
CABO VERDE ISLANDS FROM 19N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS  
WAVE FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W.  
 
ANOTHER EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 41W FROM 13N  
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.  
 
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES  
ALONG 60W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SENEGALESE COAST NEAR 19N16W  
SW TO 07N24W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N24W TO 08N38W AND  
FROM 08N43W TO 09N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED  
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ.  
 
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 10N IN  
CARIBBEAN WATERS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON  
LOW PRESSURE (INVEST AL91) THAT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS  
OF THE SW GULF AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AND HAS A  
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND.  
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OFFSHORE  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULAS HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. A MODEST  
SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, SUPPORTING GENTLE  
SE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. FOR  
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW GULF, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE  
INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE,  
AND SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE IMPACTS OF THE LOW PRESSURE,  
INVEST AL91, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF  
WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON  
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS  
BETWEEN A 1022 MB BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED WELL NE OF THE AREA AND  
LOWER PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS SUSTAINING  
STRONG TO NEAR- GALE E TRADES AND SEAS AT 9 TO 11 FT AT THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. ALSO, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TRADES  
WITH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN, WINDWARD  
PASSAGE, AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT DOMINATE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE  
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE  
TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA,  
WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
CONVECTION OFFSHORE FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT, LEAVING THE  
ONLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH  
TROPICAL WAVES OR THE ITCZ. DETAILS ON THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE VIEWED  
IN THE ABOVE TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTIONS. THE  
BASIN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING, ANCHORED BY  
A 1027 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED 32N30W AND A WEAK 1022 BERMUDA HIGH  
NEAR 28N70W. THIS IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS  
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS N OF 24N. TO THE SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH  
TRADES AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS DOMINATE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED  
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MODERATE  
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS  
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
KONARIK  
 
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