034
AXNT20 KNHC 281808
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
BAY OF CAMPECHE (INVEST AL91): RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. IN
ADDITION, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO STARTING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM, POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THIS AFTERNOON,
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEKEND TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO,
ULTIMATELY MOVING INLAND BY MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM, AND
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST AS SOON AS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE, GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, PARTICULARLY IN HILLY TERRAIN. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ,
SAN LUIS POTOSI AND TAMAULIPAS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W ACROSS THE WESTERN CABO
VERDE ISLANDS FROM 18N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED IN THE BELOW ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
ANOTHER EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 47W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 62W, FROM 22N SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
60W AND 64W. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 55W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10-15 KT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM DAKAR, SENEGAL TO 08N28W. THE
ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N28W TO 07N44W AND FROM 07N50W TO
07N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF BOTH BOUNDARIES.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
LOW PRESSURE (INVEST AL91) THAT WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH 3-5 FT SEAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS AFFECTING THE NE GULF WATERS, FROM 27N TO 30N EAST OF 85W. THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GUIDED
BY SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE
BAHAMAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN NW
COLOMBIA. THE LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA DETECTED FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO
NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N74W AND 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N45W. TOGETHER, THESE HIGH PRESSURES
DOMINATE MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN, PROVIDING FOR
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS. SOUTH OF 20N, TRADES MAY
REACH LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MAHONEY
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