130
AXNT20 KNHC 282312
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM
IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 94.2W AT 28/2100 UTC OR 210 NM ESE OF
TUXPAN MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 6 KT, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FOLLOWING TRACK THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICO COAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF
CENTER. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ, SAN LUIS POTOSI, AND
TAMAULIPAS. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST TWO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS, MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE
MON SOON TROUGH, PARTICULARLY FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND
27W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ITS AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 62W/63W, FROM 22N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTEROMETER DATA CLEARLY INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS, WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAINLY
ON THE E SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN
THESE WINDS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS, MAINLY FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM DAKAR, SENEGAL TO 08N30W. THE
ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N30W TO 06N47W TO 07N60W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND
18W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
NEWLY FORMED T.D. TWO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NE OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GENTLE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 8 FT NEAR THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, T.D. TWO WILL MOVE TO 19.7N 95.1W SUN MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.8N 96.1W SUN AFTERNOON,
21.9N 97.7W MON MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 22.1N 98.7W MON AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO
NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN
THE LEE OF CUBA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA, AND BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA, WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MAIN CENTER OF 1026 MB LOCATED NE OF THE
AZORES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE BLOWING S OF 20N WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 20N. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL
MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL S OF 25N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM
LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
GR
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