516
AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT
29/0300 UTC OR 70 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO, ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. IT IS MOVING WNW AT 7 KT, AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
CURRENT TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE MEXICO COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED UP TO 90 NM SW OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT UP TO 100 NM NW OF THE CENTER. SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF TD TWO ARE FROM 5 TO 7 FT. TD TWO IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ, SAN LUIS POTOSI, AND TAMAULIPAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS
FOR THE LATEST TD TWO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 28W FROM JUST WEST OF
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN
24W AND 28W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 52W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
A ROBUST EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 64W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
IT IS MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING
WATERS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N30W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N30W TO 06N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N TO 11N
BETWEEN 16W AND 24W, AND UP TO 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(TD) TWO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF TD TWO IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AT THE WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH OF 26N.
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST OF COAST OF FLORIDA IS CAUSING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF. A 1020 MB HIGH IS DOMINATING
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF WITH GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO
3 FT SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT
ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SSE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF TD
TWO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL MOVE TO 20.3N
96.0W SUN MORNING, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.3N
97.3W SUN EVENING. AFTERWARD, TD TWO SHOULD MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 22.1N 98.8W MON MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING MON EVENING. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1021 MB BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A TRADE-WIND REGIME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE
TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA, AND
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH WITH LOCALLY
STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WITH
5 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
E TO ESE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL ARE SEEN
NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS AND
SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN BASIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND
IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA, WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS IS
TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
22N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND THE FLORIDA COAST. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1025 MB AZORES HIGH ACROSS ANOTHER
1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N47W TO A 1021 BERMUDA HIGH AT 73W. THESE
FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 3 TO 4 FT SEAS
IN LIGHT MIXED SWELLS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 08N
TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND THE BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT EXIST. GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF 25N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM
LATE AFTERNOONS INTO THE OVERNIGHTS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH
THU. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page