665  
AXNT20 KNHC 291032  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0930 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900  
UTC OR 40 NM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. THE  
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TURN A BIT MORE NW TODAY AND REACH THE  
COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO BY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL  
PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH  
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE  
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, BUT IT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE  
RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO MON. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SEAS HAVE  
INCREASED TO 8 TO 10 FT AND WILL LIKELY BUILD FURTHER THROUGH  
TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ, SAN  
LUIS POTOSI, AND TAMAULIPAS MAY LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING  
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  
 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS  
FOR THE LATEST TD TWO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,  
PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THIS  
MORNING AND HAS AN AXIS POSITIONED ALONG 18W, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD  
FROM 18N. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W.  
 
AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 30W FROM 18W  
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ALONG 54W FROM 14N  
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODEATE  
CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN  
54W AND 60W.  
 
A WELL-DEFINITED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS AN  
AIXS ALONG 66W EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT  
IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED  
ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE, MAINLY S OF  
15N AND E OF 70W.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL SW TO 08N30W.  
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N30W TO 06N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED UP TO 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ  
BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF T.D. TWO IS GENERATING SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 91W. THE SURFACE TROUGH  
THAT HAD BEEN INDUCING SOME CONVECTION ON WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA  
COAST HAS MOVED INLAND, WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER LAND. A  
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF. AWAY FROM T.D.  
TWO, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT DOMINATE THE  
WESTERN GULF. FOR THE EASTERN BASIN, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND  
SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT PREVAIL, ALONG SOME MODERATE E WINDS AND  
SEAS TO 4 FT ARE IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ADJACENT GULF  
WATERS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM T.D. TWO, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL  
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEEK.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
A 1022 MB BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A TRADE-WIND REGIME  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES  
SECTION INFORMATION ON CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN. FRESH TO  
LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE  
SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH E WINDS WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE  
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6  
FT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR THE NW, WHERE  
SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND  
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC  
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST  
OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE  
TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA,  
WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF  
HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST E  
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINING CONVECTION  
IN THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ AND IS  
DESCRIBED IN THE NAMED SECTIONS ABOVE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS  
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE  
WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT FOR WATERS N OF 25N. TO THE SOUTH,  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE.  
THE HIGHEST TRADES AND SEAS ARE CLOSEST TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED  
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE  
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS  
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
KONARIK  
 
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