665
AXNT20 KNHC 291032
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900
UTC OR 40 NM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO TURN A BIT MORE NW TODAY AND REACH THE
COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO BY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, BUT IT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO MON. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 8 TO 10 FT AND WILL LIKELY BUILD FURTHER THROUGH
TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ, SAN
LUIS POTOSI, AND TAMAULIPAS MAY LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS
FOR THE LATEST TD TWO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY,
PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THIS
MORNING AND HAS AN AXIS POSITIONED ALONG 18W, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM 18N. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W.
AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 30W FROM 18W
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ALONG 54W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODEATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W.
A WELL-DEFINITED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS AN
AIXS ALONG 66W EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT
IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE, MAINLY S OF
15N AND E OF 70W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL SW TO 08N30W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N30W TO 06N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED UP TO 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF T.D. TWO IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 91W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT HAD BEEN INDUCING SOME CONVECTION ON WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA
COAST HAS MOVED INLAND, WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER LAND. A
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE NE GULF. AWAY FROM T.D.
TWO, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT DOMINATE THE
WESTERN GULF. FOR THE EASTERN BASIN, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FT PREVAIL, ALONG SOME MODERATE E WINDS AND
SEAS TO 4 FT ARE IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM T.D. TWO, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1022 MB BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A TRADE-WIND REGIME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION INFORMATION ON CONVECTION IN THE SE BASIN. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH E WINDS WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS DOMINATE
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR THE NW, WHERE
SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE
TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA,
WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST E
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINING CONVECTION
IN THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ AND IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NAMED SECTIONS ABOVE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT FOR WATERS N OF 25N. TO THE SOUTH,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE.
THE HIGHEST TRADES AND SEAS ARE CLOSEST TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
KONARIK
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