280
AXNT20 KNHC 291606
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1606 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS NEAR 20.4N 96.2W AT 11
AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO. RAPID WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ, SAN LUIS POTOSI, AND TAMAULIPAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WEST OF 94W. SEAS HAVE
INCREASED TO 8 TO 11 FT AND WILL LIKELY BUILD FURTHER THROUGH
TODAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS
FOR THE LATEST T.S. BARRY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC
ADVISORY, PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THIS
MORNING AND HAS AN AXIS POSITIONED ALONG 19W, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM 14N. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 18W AND 23.5W.
AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 31W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ALONG 55W FROM 14.5N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS DEPICTED AT THIS TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS AN AXIS
ALONG 67W EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT IS
MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS, MAINLY E OF 67W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N38W TO 04N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
33W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BARRY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY, MODERATE TO FRESH
SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FT DOMINATE THE GULF WEST OF 90W. FOR
THE EASTERN BASIN, EAST OF 90W, MAINLY GENTLE SE WINDS AND SEAS
OF LESS THAN 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL, ALONG SOME MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS TO 4 FT ARE IMPACTING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ADJACENT
GULF WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS NEAR
20.4N 96.2W AT 11 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. BARRY WILL MOVE TO 21.2N 97.2W THIS
EVENING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
22.0N 98.2W MON MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON EVENING. OTHERWISE, A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY
WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. A 1023 MB BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A TRADE- WIND REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9
FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH- CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH E WINDS WITH 4
TO 6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN,
EXCEPT FOR THE NW, WHERE SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN INTO MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL
PULSE TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA, WITH ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE BAHAMAS. THE
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE NAMED SECTIONS ABOVE. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS,
LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT FOR
WATERS N OF 25N. TO THE SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT DOMINATE. THE HIGHEST TRADES AND SEAS ARE
CLOSEST TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
KRV
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