259
AXNT20 KNHC 292348
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS CENTERED NEAR AT 29/0000 UTC OR 50 NM SE
OF TAMPICO MEXICO, MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. BARRY IS NEARING THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE BARRY MAKES LANDFALL, BUT RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND. BARRY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ, SAN LUIS POTOSI, AND TAMAULIPAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 25N AND WEST OF 93W. SEAS TO 12 FT
ARE WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT OF BARRY'S CENTER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
BARRY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 20W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM 14N. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W
AND 24W.
A SECOND ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 32W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS IS NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.
A THIRD ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NOTED ALONG 56W FROM
14.5N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. CONVECTION IS
LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO WESTERN VENEZUELA, WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ONCE AGAIN, SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 11N16W AND
CONTINUES W, THEN SW TO NEAR 06N39W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
06N39W TO 04N50W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM BARRY LOCATED ABOUT 85 NM SE OF TAMPICO, MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF OF AMERICA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND T.S. BARRY SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE
WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS
AND NE MEXICO, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION THERE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. SEAS ARE TO 8 FT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF BARRY. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE N GULF STATES AND NE MEXICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FLARED-UP OVER FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS TO
GALE FORCE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM BARRY IS NEAR 21.2N 96.9W AT 5 PM
EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. BARRY WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 22.0N 97.9W MON MORNING, INLAND TO 22.8N 98.8W
MON AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE LEE OF CUBA,
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE
OF CUBA, AND IN THE VICINITY OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA
WHERE SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF HISPANIOLA, EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE OFF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC
FORECAST AREA, WITH A 1023 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29N63W, AND
ANOTHER CENTER OF 1021 MB SITUATED NE OF THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE
AZORES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N AND W OF 45W, WHILE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 20N. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL MODERATE. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IS PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS W OF 70W, INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS, AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page