004
AXNT20 KNHC 300515
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0455 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY IS CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 97.8W AT
30/0300 UTC OR 10 NM SSE OF TAMPICO MEXICO, MOVING NW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 92W.
PEAK SEAS OCCURRING OFFSHORE TAMPICO ARE NEAR 8 FT. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND BARRY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 6 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. BARRY OR ITS REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ, SAN
LUIS POTOSI, AND TAMAULIPAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
BARRY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W, SOUTH OF 14N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 28W AND 40W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG
70W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N30W AND TO 06N42W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N42W TO 04N52W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN
120 NM OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE, READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VERACRUZ.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF BARRY, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
E-SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WEST OF 90W AND ALSO SOUTH OF 25N AND
EAST OF 90W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED AND NOW INLAND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARRY IS NEAR 22.0N 97.8W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. BARRY WILL
MOVE TO 22.7N 98.5W MON MORNING AND DISSIPATE MON EVENING.
OTHERWISE, BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF..
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS ALSO CAPTURED NEAR GALE-FORCE OFF NW
COLOMBIA. SEAS OF 6-9 FT (2-3 M) ARE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OFF NW
COLOMBIA. MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE
WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND ENHANCING THE
STRONG CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. FARTHER
EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FOUND SE OF BERMUDA AND A FEW SHOWERS
ARE SEEN NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 55W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-7
FT (1.5-2 M). MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE WEST OF 55W.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 25W.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-8 FT (2-2.5 M). MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE NW WATERS.
DELGADO
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