391
AXNT20 KNHC 301001
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
BARRY IS DISSIPATING OVER TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO, THIS MORNING. THE
REMNANTS OF BARRY IS CENTERED NEAR 23.0N 99.2W AT 30/0900 UTC OR
90 NM NW OF TAMPICO MEXICO, MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER
GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND W OF 92W. THE REMNANTS OF BARRY MAY STILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES, ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES
OF SAN LUIS POTOSI AND TAMAULIPAS TODAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
BARRY NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W, FROM THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO
12N AND BETWEEN 21W AND 28W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W, SOUTH OF
16N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
59W, SOUTH OF 15W, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W FROM HISPANIOLA TO
COLOMBIA, MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 13N16W TO 10N30W AND TO 06N42W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N42W TO 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF BARRY LOCATED OVER TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO.
OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF BARRY, LAND BREEZE IMPACTS HAS BROAD A
BAND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TAMPA BAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER WEEK RIDGING. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
DOMINATE THE NE GULF, WITH MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE LESS THAN 3 FT IN THE NE GULF AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BARRY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN, WITH LOCALIZED NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA.
IN THE NW BASIN, MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT,
EXCEPT 9-11 FT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, AND 3 TO 5 FT IN THE NW BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO NEAR- GALE FORCE OFF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA INTO LATE WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NW BAHAMAS,
INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS, FLORIDA,
AND ADJACENT WATERS W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, EITHER FROM THE BERMUDA
HIGH, EXTENDING SW FROM 1022 MB CENTER NEAR 32N64W, OR THE AZORES
HIGH, AT 1025 MB, CENTERED NEAR 32N30W. TO THE N OF 25N, THIS IS
CAUSING MAINLY GENTLE WINDS W OF 30W, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. OVER
THE FAR E ATLANTIC E OF 30W, FRESH NNE WINDS ARE INDUCING 5 TO 8
FT SEAS. FOR THE TRADEWIND BELT S OF 25N, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E WINDS DOMINATE, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS, LOCALLY 8 FT SEAS
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO THE OVERNIGHTS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST INTO THE NW WATERS, THEN STALL.
KONARIK
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