272  
AXNT20 KNHC 302313  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0015 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2300 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD  
FROM 16N. IT IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO  
10N BETWEEN 21W AND 32W.  
 
A SECOND ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 39W, FROM 16N  
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE  
WAVE AXIS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS  
ALONG 61W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NEAR THE  
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. THE WAVE, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL  
LOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, IS ENHANCING CONVECTION  
OVER PARTS OF JAMAICA AND REGIONAL WATERS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND EXTENDS  
WESTWARD TO 09N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 06N57W.  
CONVECTION IS LIMITED.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF AMERICA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW OF BARRY, LOCATED INLAND  
MEXICO, SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE  
WESTERN GULF, PARTICULARLY FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 93W. MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH SE ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF 27N AND W OF 90W.  
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE  
GULF REGION, WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF  
FLORIDA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS  
OF 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THE STRONGEST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS  
THE WESTERN GULF AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE  
INLAND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF 94W FROM VERACRUZ TO BROWNSVILLE  
THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS  
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS FRI, AND  
IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP FROM THE  
WEAKENING FRONT BY THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., OVER  
FLORIDA, OR OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SOME GRADUAL TROPICAL OR  
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THEREAFTER AS THE LOW MOVES  
LITTLE. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A  
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND A  
SECOND ONE IS REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE THE  
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN  
LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE STRONGEST  
WINDS, IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE SEEN OFFSHORE COLOMBIA BASED  
ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS.  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN,  
WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE BASIN. MODERATE  
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND IN THE  
VICINITY OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE  
NOTED. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING  
TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CUBA, JAMAICA  
AND HISPANIOLA.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH  
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL  
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE  
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN DIMINISH N OF 15N INTO  
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT TO NEAR-GALE  
FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA INTO WED.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE, DOMINATES THE ENTIRE  
ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA, WITH A 1024 MB CENTER LOCATED S OF  
BERMUDA NEAR 27N64W, AND ANOTHER CENTER OF 1029 MB SITUATED W  
OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N37W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND  
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 28N  
E OF 25W, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS DUE TO THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES  
OVER W AFRICA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE  
OBSERVED S OF 25N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 25N.  
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED WITHIN THESE WINDS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW,  
NOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS, IS PROMOTING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS W OF 70W, INCLUDING THE  
BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND S FLORIDA.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO  
MAINTAIN A RIDGE W TO E ALONG ABOUT 30N THROUGH WED, THEN BEGIN  
TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE  
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N  
THROUGH THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE  
SE U.S. COAST AND INTO THE NW ZONES EARLY FRI, THEN STALL THERE  
THROUGH SAT. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
GR  
 
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