272
AXNT20 KNHC 302313
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM 16N. IT IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 21W AND 32W.
A SECOND ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 39W, FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 61W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO NEAR THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. THE WAVE, COMBINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER PARTS OF JAMAICA AND REGIONAL WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO 09N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 06N57W.
CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF AMERICA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE REMNANT LOW OF BARRY, LOCATED INLAND
MEXICO, SUPPORTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF, PARTICULARLY FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 93W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF 27N AND W OF 90W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF REGION, WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THE STRONGEST WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF AS THE REMNANTS OF BARRY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
INLAND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO. SCATTERED SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W OF 94W FROM VERACRUZ TO BROWNSVILLE
THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS FRI, AND
IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP FROM THE
WEAKENING FRONT BY THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., OVER
FLORIDA, OR OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SOME GRADUAL TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THEREAFTER AS THE LOW MOVES
LITTLE. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND A
SECOND ONE IS REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS, IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ARE SEEN OFFSHORE COLOMBIA BASED
ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND SW CARIBBEAN,
WITH MAINLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE BASIN. MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF CUBA, AND IN THE
VICINITY OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE
NOTED. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING
TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CUBA, JAMAICA
AND HISPANIOLA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN DIMINISH N OF 15N INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE OFF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA INTO WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE, AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE, DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA, WITH A 1024 MB CENTER LOCATED S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 27N64W, AND ANOTHER CENTER OF 1029 MB SITUATED W
OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N37W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 28N
E OF 25W, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER W AFRICA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE
OBSERVED S OF 25N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF 25N.
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED WITHIN THESE WINDS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW,
NOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS, IS PROMOTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS W OF 70W, INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND S FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A RIDGE W TO E ALONG ABOUT 30N THROUGH WED, THEN BEGIN
TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N
THROUGH THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST AND INTO THE NW ZONES EARLY FRI, THEN STALL THERE
THROUGH SAT. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS
TIME.
GR
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