348  
AXNT20 KNHC 010457  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0615 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0445 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN  
SOUTH AMERICA AND A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE RESULT IN STRONG TO  
GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A  
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF  
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST WITH  
THESE WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS  
MORNING, BUT WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TONIGHT  
INTO WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
PLEASE, SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W, SOUTH OF 16N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 21W AND 35W.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W, SOUTH OF 16N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 37W AND 43W.  
 
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W, SOUTH OF 15N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS  
EVIDENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W, SOUTH OF 19N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15-20 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR  
THE WAVE AXIS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF  
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 09N25W AND TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS  
FROM 09N41W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT  
SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 20W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN AND SW GULF WATERS. THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY A BROAD  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA THAT SUSTAINS FRESH TO LOCALLY  
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WEST OF 90W AND SOUTH OF 25N BASED ON  
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE WIND DATA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS  
ARE 3-6 FT (1-2 M). MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES  
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE REST OF THE WESTERN GULF AND  
SOUTH OF 25N IN THE EASTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE  
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY  
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK,  
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND  
ADJACENT GULF WATERS FRI, AND IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN  
GULF THROUGH SAT.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP FROM THE  
WEAKENING FRONT BY THE WEEKEND OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., OVER  
FLORIDA, OR OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SOME GRADUAL TROPICAL OR  
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THEREAFTER AS THE LOW MOVES  
LITTLE. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A  
LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE  
GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO, TWO TROPICAL  
WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL  
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION  
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS  
NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE NOTED  
ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH  
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 20N. LIGHT  
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF  
20N.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS HAVE PULSED TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE  
COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND A GALE  
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO BUILDING. WINDS  
AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS  
WILL PULSE AGAIN TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE  
ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN DIMINISH N OF 15N INTO THE WEEKEND.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LEVEL LOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE  
NW BAHAMAS, PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
WEST OF 72W. FARTHER EAST, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW  
HUNDRED MILES SE OF BERMUDA AND A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE NOTED  
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST  
OF 55W, IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED THAT THIS RIDGE IS FORCING STRONG  
EASTERLY WINDS OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE  
4-7 FT (1.5-2 M). MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE  
SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 55W. MODERATE OR WEAKER  
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE WEST OF  
55W.  
 
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA  
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS NORTH OF 19N AND EAST OF 35W.  
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO ALSO CAPTURED  
NEAR GALE-FORCE N WINDS IN THE WATERS PASSAGES OF THE CANARY  
ISLANDS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-10 FT (2-3 M). MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF  
25N AND WEST OF 35W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND  
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO  
MAINTAIN A RIDGE W TO E ALONG ABOUT 30N THROUGH WED, THEN BEGIN TO  
DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE TO  
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N  
THROUGH THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS  
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF  
THE SE U.S. COAST AND INTO THE NW ZONES EARLY FRI, THEN STALL  
THERE THROUGH SAT. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING  
THIS TIME.  
 
 
DELGADO  
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