604  
AXNT20 KNHC 011007  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0930 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN  
SOUTH AMERICA AND A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE HAS RESULTED IN AN ARE  
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS.  
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS  
MORNING, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR-GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO WED  
MORNING.  
 
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W, SOUTH OF 16N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 21W AND 35W.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W, SOUTH OF 16N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.  
 
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W, SOUTH OF 14N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NO CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG THE  
WAVE AXIS.  
 
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W, SOUTH OF 19N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF  
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 09N25W AND TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS  
FROM 09N44W TO 06N55W. CONVECTION NEAR THESE FEATURES IS PRIMARILY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED IN  
THE SECTION ABOVE.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN  
COAST NORTH OF VERACRUZ IN THE WESTERN GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH  
AND LAND BREEZE FEATURES ARE ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST IN THE NORTHEAST  
BASIN. FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT DOMINATE THE SW GULF,  
WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS FRI, AND  
IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT.  
 
LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN ATLANTIC WATERS OFFSHORE THE SE  
U.S., OVER FLORIDA, OR IN THE EASTERN GULF, ALONG THIS STALLED  
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SOME GRADUAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THEREAFTER AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR  
SUBTROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE  
GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  
 
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER WESTERN CUBA HAS DIMINISHED, AND THE  
ONLY CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE BASIN THIS MORNING IS IN THE  
FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC  
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10W, WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
IMPACTING WATERS OFFSHORE PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. STRONG WINDS AND  
ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO  
FRESH WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO NEAR GALE-FORCE  
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE  
BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW  
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS  
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN  
DIMINISH N OF 15N INTO THE WEEKEND.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON  
CONVECTION IN THE EAST ATLANTIC. THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE  
BASIN RESIDES OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND WATERS TO THE N AND W,  
OFFSHORE FLORIDA, AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING INDUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS  
CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS.  
 
RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES WATERS N OF 24N ACROSS THE BASIN. THE  
BERMUDA HIGH OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 20N64W IS SEPARATED FROM THE  
AZORES HIGH BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF 31N AROUND  
50W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 27N58W. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 50W,  
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE PRESENT, OTHERWISE TO THE W OF 30W,  
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS DOMINATE, WITH SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT. IN THE E  
ATLANTIC BEYOND 30W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS DOMINATE  
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT. FOR TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS S OF 24W,  
MAINLY MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO  
MAINTAIN A RIDGE W TO E ALONG ABOUT 30N THROUGH WED, THEN BEGIN TO  
DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE TO  
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N  
THROUGH THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END  
OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS  
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF  
THE SE U.S. COAST AND INTO THE NW ZONES EARLY FRI, THEN STALL  
THERE THROUGH SAT.  
 
LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN ATLANTIC WATERS OFFSHORE THE SE  
U.S., OVER FLORIDA, OR IN THE EASTERN GULF, ALONG THIS STALLED  
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND, AND SOME GRADUAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THEREAFTER AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR  
SUBTROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  
 
 
KONARIK  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab TPC Page
Main Text Page