065
AXNT20 KNHC 011606
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1606 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING: THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE HAS RESULTED IN AN ARE
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS.
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR-GALE FORCE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 10.5N AND BETWEEN 31W AND 38.5W. RECENT
SATELLITE WIND DERIVED OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS
WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W, SOUTH OF 16.5N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63.5W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. NO CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18.5N16W AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N37W. CONVECTION NEAR MONSOON TROUGH IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, FROM 06N TO 11N EAST OF 23W.
RECENT SATELLITE WIND OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED NEAR-GALE TO GALE
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION MAY
BE RELATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXITING AFRICA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN
COAST NORTH OF VERACRUZ IN THE WESTERN GULF. A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND LAND BREEZE FEATURES ARE ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST IN THE NORTHEAST
BASIN. FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT DOMINATE THE SW GULF,
WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS FRI, AND
IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT. LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THIS DECAYING BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR
EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST LATE THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP
FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT BY THE WEEKEND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., OVER FLORIDA, OR OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
SOME GRADUAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
THEREAFTER AS THE LOW DRIFTS AND MOVES LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
GALE WARNING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION, NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE
EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 81.5W. THESE CONVECTION IS
IMPACTING WATERS OFFSHORE NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, PANAMA, AND
COLOMBIA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SW
BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS OVER THE
NW PART OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA ARE
ENDING THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN
DIMINISH N OF 15N INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION IN THE EAST ATLANTIC. THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE
BASIN RESIDES OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND WATERS NORTH OF 23.5N WEST
OF 73W. THESE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING INDUCED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS.
RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES WATERS N OF 24N ACROSS THE BASIN,
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. THE BERMUDA
HIGH OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N62W IS SEPARATED FROM THE AZORES
HIGH BY A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH
SW WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 35W WITH SEAS 5 TO 7
FT. IN THE E ATLANTIC BEYOND 35W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS DOMINATE WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A RIDGE W TO E ALONG ABOUT 30N THROUGH WED, THEN BEGIN TO
DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 25N
THROUGH THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END
OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE SE U.S. COAST AND INTO THE NW ZONES EARLY FRI, THEN STALL
THERE THROUGH SAT. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THIS TIME.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST LATE THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP
FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT BY THE WEEKEND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., OVER FLORIDA, OR OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
SOME GRADUAL TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
THEREAFTER AS THE LOW DRIFTS AND MOVES LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
KRV
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