414
AXNT20 KNHC 012311
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED JUL 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 8N AND BETWEEN 32W AND 38W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W, SOUTH OF 16.5N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. NO CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 18.5N16W AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N30W THEN TO 09N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N48W TO 07N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 15W AND 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY,
ALABAMA TO OFF TAMPA BAY, FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST, AND AN UPPER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. AT THE SURFACE, 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OFF PORT CHARLOTTE, FLORIDA.
THIS IS SUPPORTING GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF, AND MODERATE SE WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE SE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
TAMAULIPAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED, BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ADJACENT NE GULF
WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACTIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THU. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THIS DECAYING
BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 8 TO 14 FT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS
AND 5 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. THE TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OFF COSTA RICA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, THEN DIMINISH N OF 15N
THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH FURTHER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO
30N72W. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR 19N52W ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY. AT THE SURFACE, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION NORTH OF 20N ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC, ANCHORED BY 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 26N62W. THIS IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE BREEZES AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 20N, AND MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH OF 20N.
FOR THE WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
RIDGE W TO E ALONG ABOUT 30N THROUGH WED, THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N THROUGH THU.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST AND INTO THE NW ZONES EARLY FRI, THEN STALL THERE
THROUGH SUN. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS
TIME.
CHRISTENSEN
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