863
AXNT20 KNHC 020501
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUL 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0455 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ALONG 21W, SOUTH OF 15N, BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
WAVE GUIDANCE DATA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 07N TO 13N AND EAST
OF 30W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W, SOUTH OF
14N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 11N AND BETWEEN 33W AND 43W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W, SOUTH OF 16.5N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W, SOUTH OF 16N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, ALSO AFFECTING SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W TO 10N28W AND TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N40W TO 05N47W AND THEN FROM 04N49W TO NE BRAZIL. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE CONVECTION
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOME
OF THE CONVECTION EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
MEANWHILE, A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA
EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 88W. HOWEVER, STRONGER
WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 3-5 FT (1-1.5 M). LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED, BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ADJACENT NE GULF
WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL
THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THIS DECAYING BOUNDARY NEAR THE FLORIDA
COAST THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, THIS LOW COULD ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING
ROUGH SEAS IN THESE WATERS, PEAKING AROUND 13 FT (4 M). THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE FOUND OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND GULF
OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, OFF
THE COAST OF GEORGIA. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 72W. THE REST OF THE
SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT (1.5-2 M).
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 55W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND WEST OF 70W AND NORTH OF 25N.
FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 24N AND
BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED JUST
NORTH OF THE AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA SUSTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
N-NE WINDS NORTH OF 19N AND EAST OF 25W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FOUND IN THE WATERS PASSAGES BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 7-9 FT (2.5-3 M). MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 27N AND BETWEEN
25W AND 55W. IN THE REST OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A
RIDGE W TO E ALONG ABOUT 30N THROUGH WED, THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN MODESTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL S OF 24N THROUGH THU.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH LATE WEEK. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST AND INTO THE NW ZONES EARLY FRI, THEN STALL THERE THROUGH
SUN. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THIS LOW
COULD ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page