060  
AXNT20 KNHC 021757  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1815 UTC WED JUL 2 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1800 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 23W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC,  
FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09-11N BETWEEN THE W  
COAST OF AFRICA AND 25W.  
 
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W, SOUTH OF  
14N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W, SOUTH OF 15N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ALONG 10N BETWEEN 48-52W.  
 
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W, SOUTH OF 18N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 87W. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT.  
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF  
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 15N18W AND TO 08N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS  
FROM 08N41W TO 09N48W AND THEN FROM 06N52W TO FRENCH GUIANA.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07-10N BETWEEN 28-33W. ALL  
OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES, DESCRIBED IN THE  
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.  
 
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW  
CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE  
FAR SW CARIBBEAN GENERALLY S OF 12N. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY  
BEING ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL  
TO NE GULF, CURRENTLY OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 85-90W.  
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN  
IS DOMINATING MARINE WEATHER, LEADING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO  
SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN  
GULF THU, THEN STALL. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP NEAR  
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC OR GULF COASTS BY THIS WEEKEND ALONG  
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR  
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A  
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER  
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE.  
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-  
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL  
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE  
DEEP TROPICS RESULTS IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS  
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING  
ROUGH SEAS IN THESE WATERS, PEAKING AROUND 12 FT. THE STRONGEST  
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FOUND OFF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG  
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH  
EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH  
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL  
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE  
CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE  
WEEKEND.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF  
FLORIDA, SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND W  
OF 72W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RUNNING FROM W VENEZUELA  
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD, IS CAUSING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18-24N BETWEEN 50-59W.  
OTHERWISE, THE BASIN IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY RIDGING, WITH BOTH  
THE BERMUDA AND AZORES HIGHS N OF THE AREA, SEPARATED BY A SURFACE  
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO AREA WATERS FROM 31N47W TO 27N56W. THIS  
RIDGING IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS AREAS N OF  
22N AND E OF 27W, STRONGEST WINDS FUNNELING IN BETWEEN THE CANARY  
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE ANALYZED AT 6-8 FT IN THIS REGION AS WELL. AREAS  
S OF 20N ARE GENERALLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND  
MODERATE SEAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR  
WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE  
SE U.S COAST THU NIGHT, THEN STALL OVER THE FAR NW BASIN FRI INTO  
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE  
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC OR GULF COASTS BY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE  
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY  
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR  
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND  
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE. REGARDLESS OF  
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA  
COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION THROUGH THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
ADAMS  
 
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