060
AXNT20 KNHC 021757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUL 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 23W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC,
FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09-11N BETWEEN THE W
COAST OF AFRICA AND 25W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W, SOUTH OF
14N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W, SOUTH OF 15N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ALONG 10N BETWEEN 48-52W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 87W. IT IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 15N18W AND TO 08N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N41W TO 09N48W AND THEN FROM 06N52W TO FRENCH GUIANA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07-10N BETWEEN 28-33W. ALL
OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES, DESCRIBED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN GENERALLY S OF 12N. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY
BEING ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
TO NE GULF, CURRENTLY OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 85-90W.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN
IS DOMINATING MARINE WEATHER, LEADING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THU, THEN STALL. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC OR GULF COASTS BY THIS WEEKEND ALONG
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
DEEP TROPICS RESULTS IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING
ROUGH SEAS IN THESE WATERS, PEAKING AROUND 12 FT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FOUND OFF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
FLORIDA, SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND W
OF 72W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RUNNING FROM W VENEZUELA
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD, IS CAUSING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18-24N BETWEEN 50-59W.
OTHERWISE, THE BASIN IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY RIDGING, WITH BOTH
THE BERMUDA AND AZORES HIGHS N OF THE AREA, SEPARATED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO AREA WATERS FROM 31N47W TO 27N56W. THIS
RIDGING IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS AREAS N OF
22N AND E OF 27W, STRONGEST WINDS FUNNELING IN BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE ANALYZED AT 6-8 FT IN THIS REGION AS WELL. AREAS
S OF 20N ARE GENERALLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
SE U.S COAST THU NIGHT, THEN STALL OVER THE FAR NW BASIN FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC OR GULF COASTS BY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
ADAMS
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