419  
AXNT20 KNHC 031005  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC THU JUL 3 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0930 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 29W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC,  
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W.  
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED  
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WESTWARD  
AT AROUND 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN  
48W AND 57W.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W, SOUTH OF 18N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR HAITI.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA  
NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SW TO 10N27W, THEN W TO NEAR 09N39W. THE  
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N45W TO 08N52W AND FROM 08N56W TO 08N60W.  
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES,  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN  
14W AND 23W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND  
THE NE GULF, WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED. THE TROUGH  
EXTENDS 31N84W TO 25N85W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR  
26N90W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. GENTLE TO LOCALLY  
MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHILE GENTLE  
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE,  
EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF WHERE WINDS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE FAR NE GULF  
TODAY, THEN STALL TONIGHT, AND DEVOLVE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH FOR  
FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR  
WATERS NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE  
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE, COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW, IS LEADING TO  
A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE  
STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND  
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS,  
PEAKING AROUND 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS  
THE E AND SW CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BLOWING  
OVER THE NW PART OF THE BASIN. DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC  
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE AREA, WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION  
IN THE FAR SW BASIN, S OF 10N, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN  
EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND  
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL  
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
THE ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE,  
WITH A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NE OF THE AZORES, AND A  
ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR 29N39W. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER W AFRICA  
IS LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS  
N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE  
FUNNELING IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN  
THIS REGION. WINDS ARE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 25N, WITH  
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 25N  
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND  
MODERATE SEAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NE OF THE LEEWARD  
ISLANDS IS GENERATING AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM  
20N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W, AND A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING IN  
THIS VICINITY. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO INDUCING  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW BAHAMAS, WATERS OFFSHORE  
FLORIDA, AND REMAINING WATERS N OF 26N AND W OF 77W.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR FLORIDA OR THE  
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY THIS  
WEEKEND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE  
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL  
DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN  
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 
 
KONARIK  
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