245  
AXNT20 KNHC 031645  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1815 UTC THU JUL 3 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1600 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE E ATLANTIC, ALONG 20W  
FROM 21N SOUTHWARD WITH A 1012 MB LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 18N20W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N EAST OF 23W.  
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 32W IN THE E ATLANTIC,  
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 29W-34W.  
 
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WESTWARD  
AT AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W, SOUTH OF 20N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED  
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA  
NEAR 19N17W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO A 1012 MB LOW/TROPICAL  
WAVE NEAR 18N20W, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS  
FROM 08N37W TO 10N52W, WHERE IT BREAKS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE, THEN  
CONTINUES FROM 09N56W TO NEAR 08N61W INTO COASTAL GUYANA. NO  
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS NOTED BEYOND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
TROPICAL WAVES.  
 
THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W OVER THE COAST OF  
PANAMA TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF  
11N WEST OF 76W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
AS OF 1500 UTC, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE SW FLORIDA COAST  
FROM 27N82W TO 25N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM  
25N-27W EAST OF 85W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF  
EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 28N87W. A WEAK 1018  
MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 27N91W, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING - AWAY FROM  
THE THUNDERSTORMS - TO ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT  
SEAS OVER THE GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF WILL PERSIST  
FRI INTO SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE  
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH A 1010 MB  
COLOMBIAN LOW NEAR 10N76W IS FORCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE TRADE OVER  
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 6-11 FT. ELSEWHERE,  
TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF  
11N WEST OF 76W, ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH  
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL  
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
A WEAK 1025 MB BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N53W ALONG WITH LOWER  
PRESSURE WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO  
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPT  
IS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ALONG  
COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W  
IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 3-6 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDING FROM 25N55W TO 20N61W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 57W-63W.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST  
TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR FLORIDA OR THE  
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME  
SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD  
FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE  
SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF  
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA  
COAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT  
TWO DAYS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
LANDSEA  
 
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