245
AXNT20 KNHC 031645
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JUL 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE E ATLANTIC, ALONG 20W
FROM 21N SOUTHWARD WITH A 1012 MB LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 18N20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N EAST OF 23W.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS ALONG 32W IN THE E ATLANTIC,
FROM 18N SOUTHWARD, MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 29W-34W.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N17W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO A 1012 MB LOW/TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 18N20W, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N37W TO 10N52W, WHERE IT BREAKS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE, THEN
CONTINUES FROM 09N56W TO NEAR 08N61W INTO COASTAL GUYANA. NO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS NOTED BEYOND THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES.
THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W OVER THE COAST OF
PANAMA TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
11N WEST OF 76W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AS OF 1500 UTC, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE SW FLORIDA COAST
FROM 27N82W TO 25N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
25N-27W EAST OF 85W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF
EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W TO 28N87W. A WEAK 1018
MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 27N91W, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING - AWAY FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS - TO ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT
SEAS OVER THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF WILL PERSIST
FRI INTO SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE REGION COMBINED WITH A 1010 MB
COLOMBIAN LOW NEAR 10N76W IS FORCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE TRADE OVER
THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 6-11 FT. ELSEWHERE,
TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
11N WEST OF 76W, ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE BETWEEN W AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A WEAK 1025 MB BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N53W ALONG WITH LOWER
PRESSURE WITH THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPT
IS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ALONG
COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W
IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 3-6 FT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N55W TO 20N61W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 57W-63W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR FLORIDA OR THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LANDSEA
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