245
AXNT20 KNHC 032354
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.:
DISORGANIZED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING EASTWARD TO THE ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST- CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
SAT, AND ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATER
ON SAT. THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 21W FROM 10N TO
21N. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE
FROM 08N TO BETWEEN 18W AND 23W.
AN EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS ALONG 32W FROM 08N TO 19N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A
VERY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NEAR ITS SOUTHERN PART.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF
18N TO INLAND EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 61W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 78W SOUTH
OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N21W, AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N23W, TO
09N27W AND WESTWARD TO 09N37W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
TO 11N47W AND TO 11N57W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES, NO OTHER CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
28N84W AND TO NEAR 26N86W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW
GULF NEAR 28N93W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N93W TO
21N96W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT NORTH OF
26N, AND ALSO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 87W, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
ARE ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS
NEAR FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTION OF THE BASIN, GENERALLY FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND
78W. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 6 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE
IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE BASIN SOUTH OF 12N
AND WEST OF 81W TO INLAND COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE
EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED AT 31N51W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N38W TO 29N43W AND TO NEAR 29N52W. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 24N61W TO JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 21N TO
27N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. THE PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ALONG COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. SEAS
ARE 7-9 FT NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W DUE TO A LONG-PERIOD
NORTHEAST SWELL. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
FLORIDA OR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
AGUIRRE
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