219  
AXNT20 KNHC 040527  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0615 UTC FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0505 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES (AL92):  
SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS  
FORMED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA, AND IS  
ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE  
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION  
COULD FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE TODAY OR OVER  
THE WEEKEND IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS OF  
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND  
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATER ON  
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE  
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE  
NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT  
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W:  
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
NORTH OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA WILL SUPPORT  
GALE-FORCE NE WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS CLOSE AND BETWEEN THE CANARY  
ISLANDS FROM 04/18 UTC UNTIL AT LEAST 05/00 UTC ACCORDING TO  
METEO FRANCE. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH, PEAKING AROUND 11  
FT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT VISIBILITY IS REDUCED TO  
MODERATE OR POOR DUE TO SAND HAZE.  
 
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W, SOUTH OF 20N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 12N AND BETWEEN  
18W AND 27W.  
 
ANOTHER EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A VERY STABLE  
AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR ITS SOUTHERN  
PART.  
 
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W, SOUTH OF 18N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT IN THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER VENEZUELA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH  
AXIS.  
 
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W, SOUTH OF 19N,  
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE SW  
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF  
MAURITANIA NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 13N25W  
AND TO 06N42W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N42W TO 05N52W. ASIDE FROM  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES, NO OTHER CONVECTION  
IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND DIVERGENCE  
ALOFT IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTS MOST OF THE NE GULF WATERS. DRIER  
CONDITIONS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN DUST DOMINATE THE  
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND  
SLIGHT SEAS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE REST OF THE  
GULF, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS  
PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE  
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN  
COLOMBIA IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER  
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT. MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT  
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVES, GENERALLY DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND  
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT  
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING ON SAT  
NIGHT.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NE ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE  
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE  
MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE  
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS OFF NE  
FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN  
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW  
PRESSURE IN THE SE UNITED STATES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE  
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF  
27N AND WEST OF 77W. MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE AREA  
DESCRIBED. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE  
SEAS ARE NOTED OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE SE BAHAMAS. FARTHER  
EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 25N  
AND WEST OF 55W. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST  
OF 55W, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS  
PREVAIL.  
 
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A  
STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR NE ATLANTIC THAT IS  
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS EAST  
OF 40W AND NORTH OF 19N. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND  
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE,  
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTWARD TO THE  
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE ASSOCIATED  
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT,  
AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS REGION  
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR  
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA  
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE  
CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATER ON SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE  
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM  
ON FRIDAY, IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL  
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND ALSO THROUGH THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
DELGADO  
 
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