959  
AXNT20 KNHC 041013  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES (AL92):  
SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS  
FORMED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA, AND IS  
ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE  
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION  
COULD FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE TODAY OR OVER  
THE WEEKEND IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS OF  
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND  
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATER ON  
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS  
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS  
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48  
HOURS, AND ALSO DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT  
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W:  
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA WILL  
SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NE WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS CLOSE AND BETWEEN  
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 04/18 UTC UNTIL AT LEAST 05/12 UTC  
ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH, PEAKING  
AROUND 11 FT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT VISIBILITY IS  
REDUCED TO MODERATE OR POOR DUE TO SAND HAZE.  
 
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W, SOUTH OF 20N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 10N AND  
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.  
 
ANOTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDS  
THE WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR ITS SOUTHERN PART.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS ALONG  
65W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. THE  
WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA.  
 
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS REACHING CENTRAL  
AMERICA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 84W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT  
NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE  
SW CARIBBEAN JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS, AND NEAR THE COSTA RICA/  
NICARAGUA BORDER.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA  
NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD CROSSING THE WESTERN CABO VERDE  
ISLANDS, THEN SW TO NEAR 06N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N44W TO  
05N52W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES,  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 15W  
TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF  
JACKSONVILLE, FL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER  
ACROSS THE NE GULF. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE  
CENTRAL GULF AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS WEATHER  
PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE W OF THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. SIMILAR WINDS SPEEDS ARE ALSO  
NOTED IN THE NW GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.  
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 3 TO 4  
FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND IN THE NW GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA.  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH  
NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A  
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY  
OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE  
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN  
LOW IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER  
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN  
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO  
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVES, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, LOW TOPPED TRADE WIND  
SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE  
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT  
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING ON SAT  
NIGHT.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT E OF 35W. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL  
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING  
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE  
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS JUST E OF  
FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF  
JACKSONVILLE, FL. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THE  
PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS E OF  
THE LOW, PARTICULARLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 79.5W. SEAS ARE  
MODERATE IN THIS AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. FARTHER  
EAST, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING THE  
WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W, AND FROM 26N TO 29N  
BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IS THIS AREA. AN  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  
 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE  
OF A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES.  
THE PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER  
PRESSURES OVER THE NW AFRICA IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG  
NORTHEAST WINDS N OF 20N AND E OF 31W, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE  
CANARY ISLANDS, WHERE WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE, AND  
ALONG COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS.  
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR  
DETAILS RELATED TO A LOW PRESSURE SITUATED E OF JACKSONVILLE, FL.  
 
 
GR  
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