959
AXNT20 KNHC 041013
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI JUL 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES (AL92):
SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA, AND IS
ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LATE TODAY OR OVER
THE WEEKEND IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AND
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATER ON
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND ALSO DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING E OF 35W:
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA WILL
SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NE WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS CLOSE AND BETWEEN
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 04/18 UTC UNTIL AT LEAST 05/12 UTC
ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH, PEAKING
AROUND 11 FT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT VISIBILITY IS
REDUCED TO MODERATE OR POOR DUE TO SAND HAZE.
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 10N AND
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
ANOTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDS
THE WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR ITS SOUTHERN PART.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS ALONG
65W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. THE
WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS REACHING CENTRAL
AMERICA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 84W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS, AND NEAR THE COSTA RICA/
NICARAGUA BORDER.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD CROSSING THE WESTERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS, THEN SW TO NEAR 06N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N44W TO
05N52W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 15W
TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF
JACKSONVILLE, FL. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
ACROSS THE NE GULF. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE NE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE W OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. SIMILAR WINDS SPEEDS ARE ALSO
NOTED IN THE NW GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 3 TO 4
FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND IN THE NW GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH
NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVES, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, LOW TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING ON SAT
NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT E OF 35W. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE, SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS JUST E OF
FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF
JACKSONVILLE, FL. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS E OF
THE LOW, PARTICULARLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 79.5W. SEAS ARE
MODERATE IN THIS AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OFF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. FARTHER
EAST, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W, AND FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IS THIS AREA. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES.
THE PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE NW AFRICA IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS N OF 20N AND E OF 31W, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS, WHERE WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE, AND
ALONG COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS RELATED TO A LOW PRESSURE SITUATED E OF JACKSONVILLE, FL.
GR
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