987
AXNT20 KNHC 041730
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JUL 04 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES (AL92):
SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 130 NM
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY WITH AN
AREA OF STRONG WINDS LOCATED ON ITS EAST SIDE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. A SHORT-LIVED SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SAT WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY EARLY SUN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE, AND THE DATA THEY COLLECT
SHOULD PROVIDE MORE DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY SAT, AND
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS BEGINNING LATER ON SAT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND ALSO DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING E OF 35W:
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA WILL
SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS CLOSE AND
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 04/18 UTC UNTIL AT LEAST 05/12 UTC
ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH, PEAKING
AROUND 11 FT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT VISIBILITY MAY BE
REDUCED TO MODERATE OR POOR DUE TO HAZE.
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 25W FROM
05N TO 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N. THIS WAVE REMAINS SURROUNDED BY
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
FROM 08N TO 10N.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 38W FROM 04N
TO 16N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. A DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ALSO SURROUNDS THIS WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR ITS SOUTHERN PART.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS IS ALONG 66W SOUTH
OF 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE
FROM 13N TO 15N, AND WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO
15N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
18N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 86W SOUTH
OF 19N TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND REACHING FARTHER SOUTH TO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 05N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE EASTERN SECTION NICARAGUA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W, AND CONTINUES WESTWARD THROUGH A WEAK
1013 MB LOW NEAR 19N25W AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE TO 10N35W
AND TO 07N44W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO NEAR 05N52W.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF 09N48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N85W, THEN CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WHILE A WEAK
1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF 90W AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WEST OF 90W. SEAS OF
3 FT OR LESS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH E OF ABOUT 90W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
ALSO PRESENT SOUTH OF 25N E OF 86W TO THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND INLAND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN AS INDICATED BY
A 1415Z SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE 6 TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE EAST OF
ABOUT 80W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT N OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVES, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOTED OVER THE
TROPICAL WATERS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
BEGINNING ON SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT E OF 35W. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS JUST E
OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR 31N79W DRIFTS NORTHWARD. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO NEAR-GALE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE, NAMELY
N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 3 TO 5
FT, BUT MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT EXISTS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W, AND ALSO
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE S OF 28N BETWEEN 55W AND 78W. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. FARTHER E, A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR
28N63W TO 25N66W AND TO NEAR 21N68W. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS HELPING TO INITIATE AN INCREASING AREA
OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N TO
29N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. TO THE NE OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 26N TO
31N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N39W TO
27N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC DOMAIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES. THE
PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER THE NW AFRICA IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
NORTH OF ABOUT 20N AND EAST OF 31W, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE CANARY
ISLANDS, WHERE WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE, AND ALONG
COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. ROUGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS RELATED TO LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 130 NM OFF
THE NE FLORIDA COAST. OTHERWISE, THE PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS N OF 29N AND W OF 75W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA STARTING SAT NIGHT, BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BY
MON NIGHT.
AGUIRRE
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