008  
AXNT20 KNHC 050557  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0615 UTC SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0555 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 78.8W AT  
05/0600 UTC OR 140 NM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA,  
STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NORTH OF 26N  
AND WEST OF 74W. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY  
TONIGHT, BUT A SLOW MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED  
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH BY  
THE END OF THE DAY, AND THEN NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE  
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY MORNING.  
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO  
BRING ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN  
UNITED STATES COASTLINE NORTH OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST THREE  
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV  
FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE  
DETAILS.  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W:  
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA  
WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS CLOSE  
AND BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST 06/00 UTC ACCORDING  
TO METEO FRANCE. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH, PEAKING AROUND 10  
FT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO  
MODERATE OR POOR DUE TO SAND HAZE, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR E PART.  
 
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W, SOUTH OF 19N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS SURROUNDED BY A  
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT  
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  
 
AN CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT  
ALSO SURROUNDS THIS WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR ITS  
SOUTHERN PART.  
 
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED  
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W, SOUTH OF 19N,  
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE  
WAVE IS ENHANCING THE STORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF  
SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N30W AND TO  
07N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
PRESENT FROM 05N TO 13N AND EAST OF 27W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM T.D.  
THREE OFF NE FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, WHILE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS  
ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH  
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF 22N AND EAST  
OF 94W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE  
NOTED NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 95W. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN,  
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR  
FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD  
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE  
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUSTAIN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN, WHILE  
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN IN THE REST OF THE BASIN. THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE  
CARIBBEAN WATERS, SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY  
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MAINLY  
MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT  
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT  
SEAS PREVAIL IN THE REST OF THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE  
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT  
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SAT THROUGH  
TUE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION THREE AND A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT E OF 35W. ALSO, TWO  
TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE  
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
ASIDE FROM T.D. THREE, A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF  
HISPANIOLA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 29N AND BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W, IS UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUPPORTING MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.  
 
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE  
IN THE FAR NE ATLANTIC THAT IS FORCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE  
NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS EAST OF 40W AND NORTH OF 20N.  
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND  
SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS  
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS NEAR  
30.6N 78.9W AT 11 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 0 KT. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM  
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THREE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL  
STORM NEAR 30.9N 79.1W SAT MORNING, MOVE TO 31.7N 79.5W SAT  
EVENING, INLAND TO 32.9N 79.8W SUN MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT  
LOW NEAR 34.2N 79.6W SUN EVENING, 35.5N 78.5W MON MORNING, AND  
DISSIPATE MON EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF T.D. THREE WILL REMAIN  
NORTH OF 31N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS PATTERN  
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXCEPT FOR FRESH  
TO STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY  
SAT NIGHT.  
 

 
DELGADO  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page