709  
AXNT20 KNHC 051031  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 78.6W AT 05/0900  
UTC OR 140 NM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA, MOVING NNE AT 2  
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. BAND OF SHOWERS,  
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTOMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION  
OF T.D. THREE ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 74W,  
INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARDS  
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY  
A TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE  
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR  
OR OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL  
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO  
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS  
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL  
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL  
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, IS EXPECTED.  
THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A STORM  
SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL COULD OCCUR ALONG THE COAST  
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE  
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO  
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE NORTH OF  
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST  
THREE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT  
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W:  
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NW AFRICA WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS, WITH SEVERE GUSTS,  
CLOSE AND BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST 06/00 UTC  
ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS  
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS, PARTICULARLY  
BETWEEN ISLANDS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS,  
PEAKING AROUND 10 FT. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED THAT VISIBILITY  
MAY BE REDUCED TO MODERATE OR POOR DUE TO SAND HAZE, ESPECIALLY IN  
THE FAR E PART.  
 
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W, SOUTH OF 19N,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS SURROUNDED BY A  
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT  
NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT  
ALSO SURROUNDS THIS WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR ITS SOUTHERN  
PART.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS IS ALONG  
69W/70W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM  
APPEARS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ABC ISLANDS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG  
87W, S OF 18N AND EXTENDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THE WAVE  
IS ENHANCING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF  
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11N30W AND TO  
07N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N46W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR  
07N59W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN  
12W AND 25W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE  
GULF FROM T.D. THREE LOCATED OFF NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.  
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO SEEN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL  
GULF AND SE LOUISIANA. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR  
26N91W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO  
S WINDS OVER THE NW GULF, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS  
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED  
ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS  
COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE  
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA.  
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH  
NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A  
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY  
OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE  
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND  
LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES  
OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN AS INDICATED BY RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 9  
FT. MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE EAST OF ABOUT 80W ALONG WITH  
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT  
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVES, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS, WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS  
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND  
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG  
TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH  
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS  
ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE  
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS  
TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION THREE AND A GALE WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT E OF 35W.  
ALSO, TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
ASIDE FROM T.D. THREE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF  
HISPANIOLA, AND RUNS FROM 28N65W TO 22N70W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS  
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS  
FEATURE IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS HELPING TO  
INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC  
DOMAIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES. THE PRESENT PRESSURE GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NW AFRICA IS  
ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 22N  
AND EAST OF 32W, INCLUDING BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS, WHERE  
WINDS ARE REACHING GALE FORCE, AND ALONG COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA.  
ROUGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WILL  
STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 31.5N 78.8W THIS AFTERNOON,  
MOVE TO 32.6N 79.2W SUN MORNING, INLAND TO 33.7N 79.4W SUN  
AFTERNOON, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR  
34.8N 78.8W MON MORNING, INLAND TO 36.3N 77.1W MON AFTERNOON, AND  
DISSIPATE TUE MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF T.D. THREE WILL REMAIN  
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS  
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF  
HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON.  
 
 
GR  
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