348  
AXNT20 KNHC 052339  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0015 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2330 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CENTERED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100  
UTC OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA, MOVING N AT  
6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM  
FORCE WINDS REACH TO WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. SEAS  
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO  
18 FT (3 TO 5.5 M). DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF THE NUMEROUS  
TO STRONG-TYPE INTENSITY IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST  
OF CHANTAL FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. A MOTION TOWARD  
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED  
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUN NIGHT. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE  
WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT WILL LIFT NORTH OF 31N BY LATE TONIGHT,  
ALLOWING FOR SEAS JUST SOUTH OF 31N TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT  
(2.5 M).  
 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST  
THREE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT  
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1035  
MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE AZORES AND LOW  
PRESSURES IN NORTHWEST AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE  
NE WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS, FOR THE WATERS  
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS, AND VICINITY WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST  
07/0900 UTC ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE.  
 
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
A FAR EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 18Z SURFACE  
ANALYSIS NEAR 19W FROM 05N TO 16N BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION  
IMAGERY AND ON THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. IT  
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS OBSERVED TO BE  
EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMEROUS  
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO  
14N. THIS ACTIVITY REACHES INLAND AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE WAVE TO NEAR 25W FROM  
07N TO 10N.  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 33W FROM  
07N TO 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. A VERY DRY AND STABLE  
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SURROUND THIS WAVE. ONLY ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS, WHERE  
IT CROSSES THE MONSOON TROUGH.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 50W FROM 05N  
TO 18N. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER WEST FROM EARLIER TODAY  
BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION IMAGERY AND ON THE SUNY-ALBANY  
TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20  
KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO SURROUNDED BY A VERY DRY AND STABLE  
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR  
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W EXTENDING FROM  
EXTREME SOUTHERN HAITI SOUTHWARD TO INLAND FAR WESTERN VENEZUELA.  
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN  
70W AND 75W.  
 
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS ALONG 89W HAS MOVED WELL  
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA, AND IS BEING DESCRIBED IN THE EASTERN  
NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COASTAL  
BORDER OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS  
10N30W TO 08N43W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES  
WESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF GUYANA NEAR 09N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 28W-32W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL  
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. ANOTHER  
TROUGH CURVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO NEAR  
NEW ORLEANS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AS  
SEEN NEAR 27N89W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING TO INITIATE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME  
SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE, A 1017 MB  
HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N83W. ITS ASSOCIATED  
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST  
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. MODERATE  
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE OFF THE  
TEXAS COAST AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS  
AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE TROUGHS OVER THE WATERS NEAR  
FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST  
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN  
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA  
NEAR 32N58W. IT IS THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE TRADE-WIND  
REGIME FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE BASIN.  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE GENTLE TO  
MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE OVER THE NORTHWEST  
SECTION OF THE SEA.  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG  
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER SOME SECTIONS OF CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN CUBA AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC  
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING  
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL  
ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS IN  
THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL  
STORM CHANTAL AND A GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE  
CANARY ISLANDS.  
 
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO  
BEYOND 31N BETWEEN 73W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST.  
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N61W TO 25N69W. SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27.5N BETWEEN  
61W AND 66W, AND JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL CUBAN COAST OVER THE  
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.  
 
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF  
7 TO 11 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 75W. OTHERWISE,  
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SUSTAINING GENTLE WINDS WITH 3 TO 4 FT  
SEAS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST.  
FARTHER EAST BETWEEN 35W AND 40W AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH FROM  
10N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES/BAHAMAS, GENTLE TO  
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT EXIST. GENTLE WINDS  
AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED SWELL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS  
THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS NEAR  
31.9N 78.7W AT 5 PM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTH AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM  
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. CHANTAL WILL MOVE TO 33.0N 79.3W SUN  
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 34.1N 79.6W SUN  
AFTERNOON, INLAND TO 35.3N 79.0W MON MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON  
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THIS PATTERN  
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXCEPT FOR  
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA  
THROUGH MON.  
 
 
AGUIRRE  
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