067  
AXNT20 KNHC 060543  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0615 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0600 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1036  
MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE AZORES AND LOW  
PRESSURES IN NORTHWEST AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE  
NE WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND 7-11 FT SEAS, FOR THE WATERS  
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND VICINITY WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST  
07/0900 UTC ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE.  
 
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
AN EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 03-16N, MOVING WESTWARD  
AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE FROM 07-11N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF  
AFRICA AND 25W.  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 35W FROM  
02N-18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS, WHERE IT CROSSES  
THE MONSOON TROUGH.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 52W FROM 04N-16N.  
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. VERY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE  
OBSERVED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W EXTENDING FROM  
EXTREME SOUTHERN HAITI SOUTHWARD TO INLAND CENTRAL COLOMBIA. IT  
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN  
70-78W.  
 
THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W EXTENDS INTO  
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, BUT WITH NO NOTABLE CONVECTION OR OTHER  
IMPACTS NOTED AT THIS TIME.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEST COAST OF  
AFRICA NEAR 12N17W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 10N20W, AND  
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N42W. THE ITCZ THEN IS ANALYZED FROM  
07N42W TO 08N50W WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH THE  
ITCZ THEN RESUMING AT 08N52W AND ENDING AT THE COASTAL BORDER OF  
FRENCH GUYANA NEAR 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE FROM 06-09N BETWEEN 25-31W. ALL OTHER  
CONVECTION ALONG THESE FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES  
MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.  
 
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW  
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
OBSERVED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME SECTIONS OF THE FAR  
EASTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE  
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N92W. ITS ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR  
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE  
GULF, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS. SEAS  
ACROSS THE GULF RANGE FROM 1-3 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE  
GULF THROUGH SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR  
FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD  
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB IS ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE COLOMBIA LOW IS  
DRIVING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH  
TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO  
MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 1-4 FT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE  
BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA  
SOUTHWARD.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC  
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH  
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND  
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE  
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL  
ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE  
GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE  
WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS.  
 
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO BEYOND 31N  
BETWEEN 71W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. CONVERGENT  
SURFACE WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL. A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N61W TO 23N64W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS  
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH.  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.  
FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT PERSIST IN THE  
WAKE OF CHANTAL ACROSS AREAS N OF 27N BETWEEN 75W AND THE E COAST  
OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEMMING FROM A 1036  
MB HIGH N OF THE AREA IS SUSTAINING A TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS  
ARE SEEN N OF 22N AND E OF 27W TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. MODERATE  
TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS N OF 20N AND  
E OF 45W, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER  
ANTILLES AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS  
SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES  
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL  
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL  
SUPPORT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO  
FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON,  
THEN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.  
 
 
ADAMS  
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