067
AXNT20 KNHC 060543
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1036
MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE AZORES AND LOW
PRESSURES IN NORTHWEST AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE
NE WINDS WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND 7-11 FT SEAS, FOR THE WATERS
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND VICINITY WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST
07/0900 UTC ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE.
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 03-16N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE FROM 07-11N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF
AFRICA AND 25W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 35W FROM
02N-18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE SEEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS, WHERE IT CROSSES
THE MONSOON TROUGH.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 52W FROM 04N-16N.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. VERY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W EXTENDING FROM
EXTREME SOUTHERN HAITI SOUTHWARD TO INLAND CENTRAL COLOMBIA. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN
70-78W.
THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W EXTENDS INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, BUT WITH NO NOTABLE CONVECTION OR OTHER
IMPACTS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 12N17W, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 10N20W, AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N42W. THE ITCZ THEN IS ANALYZED FROM
07N42W TO 08N50W WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH THE
ITCZ THEN RESUMING AT 08N52W AND ENDING AT THE COASTAL BORDER OF
FRENCH GUYANA NEAR 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED VIA SATELLITE FROM 06-09N BETWEEN 25-31W. ALL OTHER
CONVECTION ALONG THESE FEATURES IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME SECTIONS OF THE FAR
EASTERN GULF. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N92W. ITS ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
GULF, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF RANGE FROM 1-3 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE
GULF THROUGH SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR
FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB IS ANALYZED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE COLOMBIA LOW IS
DRIVING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 1-4 FT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE
WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO BEYOND 31N
BETWEEN 71W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. CONVERGENT
SURFACE WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N61W TO 23N64W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT PERSIST IN THE
WAKE OF CHANTAL ACROSS AREAS N OF 27N BETWEEN 75W AND THE E COAST
OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEMMING FROM A 1036
MB HIGH N OF THE AREA IS SUSTAINING A TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS
ARE SEEN N OF 22N AND E OF 27W TO THE W COAST OF AFRICA. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS N OF 20N AND
E OF 45W, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS
SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON,
THEN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.
ADAMS
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