468
AXNT20 KNHC 061013
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1034 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED N OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES
IN NW AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS,
WITH SEVERE GUSTS, BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST
07/0000 UTC ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE. ONCE AGAIN, SCATTEROMETER
DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN ISLANDS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS,
PEAKING 10 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W, AND EXTENDS S FROM THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06 TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 36W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W, SOUTH 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS
IS ALONG 76W, AND EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO INLAND COLOMBIA.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA, HAITI AND JAMAICA.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION.
ITS AXIS IS ALONG 92W. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER SW
GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA NEAR 12N16W, AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 10N24W TO 08N42W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO NEAR THE SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
16W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT OVER PARTS
OF FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF IS ALSO GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N89W. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE NW
GULF, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 3
FT OR LESS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE NW GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE
GULF TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH NE
TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WED AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN AS INDICATED BY RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7
FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED AHEAD
OF THE WAVE AXIS, AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE WARNING
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, THREE
TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS N OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ARE STILL AFFECTING THE WATERS OFFSHORE
NE FLORIDA, PARTICULARLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. ROUGH SEAS
ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. AN OUTER RAINBAND FROM CHANTAL EXTENDS
OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. FARTHER E, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
THAT RUNS FROM 29N62W TO 23N65W. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC DOMAIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED N OF THE
AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE NW AFRICA IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 21N AND EAST OF 27W, INCLUDING
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS, WHERE WINDS ARE REACHING GALE FORCE,
AND ALONG COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. ROUGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON, THEN FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.
GR
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