468  
AXNT20 KNHC 061013  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1034 MB  
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED N OF THE AZORES AND LOWER PRESSURES  
IN NW AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS,  
WITH SEVERE GUSTS, BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST  
07/0000 UTC ACCORDING TO METEO FRANCE. ONCE AGAIN, SCATTEROMETER  
DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS, PARTICULARLY  
BETWEEN ISLANDS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS,  
PEAKING 10 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA.  
 
FOR MORE DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
LISTED ON THE WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
AN EASTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W, AND EXTENDS S FROM THE  
CABO VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06 TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.  
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 36W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR  
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W, SOUTH 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT  
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR THE  
SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS  
IS ALONG 76W, AND EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO INLAND COLOMBIA.  
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA, HAITI AND JAMAICA.  
 
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF  
CAMPECHE, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION.  
ITS AXIS IS ALONG 92W. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER SW  
GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEST COAST OF  
AFRICA NEAR 12N16W, AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 10N24W TO 08N42W.  
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO NEAR THE SURINAME/GUYANA BORDER.  
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES,  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN  
16W AND 20W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE  
GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT OVER PARTS  
OF FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE  
CENTRAL GULF IS ALSO GENERATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N89W. THIS  
WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE NW  
GULF, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BAY  
OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 3  
FT OR LESS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS  
OF 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE NW GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NE  
GULF TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH NE  
TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA  
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WED AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS  
INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT  
NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE  
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW  
PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER  
MOST OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN AS INDICATED BY RECENT  
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7  
FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE  
SEAS ARE PREVALENT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
TROPICAL WAVE, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED AHEAD  
OF THE WAVE AXIS, AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND  
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS, NICARAGUA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS  
HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND  
HONDURAS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE  
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE  
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE GULF OF  
HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE WARNING  
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, THREE  
TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE  
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS N OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT SATELLITE  
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ARE STILL AFFECTING THE WATERS OFFSHORE  
NE FLORIDA, PARTICULARLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. ROUGH SEAS  
ARE WITHIN THESE WINDS. AN OUTER RAINBAND FROM CHANTAL EXTENDS  
OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. FARTHER E, SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH  
THAT RUNS FROM 29N62W TO 23N65W. THIS FEATURE IS UNDER A BROAD  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC DOMAIN IS UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED N OF THE  
AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND LOWER  
PRESSURES OVER THE NW AFRICA IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG  
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 21N AND EAST OF 27W, INCLUDING  
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS, WHERE WINDS ARE REACHING GALE FORCE,  
AND ALONG COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. ROUGH SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH  
THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS  
PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CONTINUES  
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD  
WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT  
GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH  
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON, THEN FRESH  
TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.  
 
 
GR  
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