608  
AXNT20 KNHC 061806  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1815 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1630 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
GALE WARNING FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS:  
METEO-FRANCE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS UNTIL  
07/00Z. SEAS IN THE AREA RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT. FOR MORE DETAILS,  
PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THE  
WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM NEAR THE  
CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N  
TO 09N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 38W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD,  
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
PRESENT FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 53W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,  
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 78W FROM JUST WEST OF  
JAMAICA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER. IT IS MOVING  
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE SEEN NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF  
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 09N25W  
TO 08N39W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N39W TO NORTH OF  
FRENCH GUIANA AT 08N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT  
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN THE SENEGAL-  
GUIANA COAST AND 20W.  
 
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING  
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO  
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF, THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR NEW  
ORLEANS. AIDED BY A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL LOW AT THE CENTRAL GULF,  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. A 1016 HIGH SOUTH  
OF NEW ORLEANS IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS FOR  
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS  
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE  
NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR  
FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF  
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST  
WED AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD  
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE  
IN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SEMI-ROBUST TRADE WIND REGIME  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND  
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE BASIN. FRESH WITH  
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT  
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS WITH  
SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO  
MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN  
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS  
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO  
FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN BASIN  
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL  
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS  
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THURSDAY.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE WARNING  
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS.  
 
AIDED BY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 28N  
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. FARTHER EAST, THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF  
27N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND  
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION  
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO  
7 FT SEAS DOMINATE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND THE NORTHEAST  
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. OTHERWISE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  
IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT NORTH OF A LINE  
FROM 31N40W TO 23N75W. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM 10N TO THE LINE  
FROM 31N40W TO 23N75W, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS WITH 4 TO  
7 FT SEAS EXIST. GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, INLAND  
NORTH CAROLINA, ARE STILL AFFECTING THE WATERS OFFSHORE NE  
FLORIDA. AS CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA,  
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE  
BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE  
WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE  
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT.  
 
 
 
CHAN  
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