608
AXNT20 KNHC 061806
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS:
METEO-FRANCE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS UNTIL
07/00Z. SEAS IN THE AREA RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT. FOR MORE DETAILS,
PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THE
WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM NEAR THE
CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 09N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 38W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
PRESENT FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 53W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FOUND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 78W FROM JUST WEST OF
JAMAICA SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE PANAMA-COLOMBIA BORDER. IT IS MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 09N25W
TO 08N39W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 08N39W TO NORTH OF
FRENCH GUIANA AT 08N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN THE SENEGAL-
GUIANA COAST AND 20W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR COSTA RICA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF, THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR NEW
ORLEANS. AIDED BY A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL LOW AT THE CENTRAL GULF,
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. A 1016 HIGH SOUTH
OF NEW ORLEANS IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 2 FT SEAS FOR
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COAST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS
AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER THE WATERS NEAR
FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST
WED AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
IN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SEMI-ROBUST TRADE WIND REGIME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE BASIN. FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS WITH
SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN BASIN
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THURSDAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A GALE WARNING
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS.
AIDED BY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 28N
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. FARTHER EAST, THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND
TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO
7 FT SEAS DOMINATE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. OTHERWISE, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT NORTH OF A LINE
FROM 31N40W TO 23N75W. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM 10N TO THE LINE
FROM 31N40W TO 23N75W, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO E WINDS WITH 4 TO
7 FT SEAS EXIST. GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, INLAND
NORTH CAROLINA, ARE STILL AFFECTING THE WATERS OFFSHORE NE
FLORIDA. AS CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA,
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT.
CHAN
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