913  
AXNT20 KNHC 070023  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0015 UTC MON JUL 07 2025  
 
CORRECTED ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0000 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: LATEST METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST  
MAINTAINS A GALE WARNING FOR THE CANARY ISLANDS VALID UNTIL  
07/03Z. SEAS IN THE AREA RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT. FOR MORE DETAILS,  
PLEASE VISIT THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LISTED ON THE  
WEBSITE HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 24W FROM  
NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND  
10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE  
ENVELOPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG  
AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE.  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 39W FROM 04N  
TO 19N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 55W SOUTH OF  
16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS  
FROM 05N TO 08N.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 81W SOUTH  
OF 19N TO CENTRAL PANAMA AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 06N.  
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N TO 19N,  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER  
OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH  
12N24W AND TO 08N32W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO  
09N38W, AND CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL NEAR 09N41W  
TO JUST EAST OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 09N54W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 27W AND  
34W AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD TO  
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS  
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TO THE EASTERN GULF REACHING TO NEAR 27N87W.  
A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD AS SEEN ON  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 25N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W AND JUST  
OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST OF LOUISIANA. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTER IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AT 27N91W. ITS RELATED  
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS  
THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS  
ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE,  
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF  
AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS  
THE NE GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE  
TROUGH THROUGH MON. THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE  
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA  
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A  
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE  
BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MOST OF  
THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN, AND MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER  
THE WESTERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES  
ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR  
HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W,  
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W, AND EVEN HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 9  
FT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG  
TRADES ARE PRESENT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE  
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH  
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN  
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL  
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG EAST  
WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, GOING INTO  
THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
CORRECTED  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A  
CONTINUING GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE CANARY  
ISLANDS.  
 
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N64W TO 25N70W. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH IS OVER THIS GENERAL AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE  
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
AN AREA FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W. FARTHER TO THE EAST,  
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N41W TO 22N40W. LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES SHOW A NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE OF GENTLE TO  
MODERATE SPEEDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. FRESH EAST WINDS  
ARE TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AS ALSO INDICATED BY THE  
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. THESE WINDS COVER AN AREA  
FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5  
TO 7 FT. OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA, MODERATE TO FRESH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN AND 74W AND 79W. SEAS  
WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS ARE  
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS  
OF 5 TO 6 FT FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 34W AND 53W WHERE FRESH  
TRADES ARE PRESENT.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART  
OF THE AREA DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO  
INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, INLAND  
NORTH CAROLINA, ARE STILL AFFECTING THE WATERS OFFSHORE  
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AS CHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE  
FORECAST AREA, ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD  
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG  
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA  
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
 
 
AGUIRRE  
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