855  
AXNT20 KNHC 070559  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0615 UTC MON JUL 7 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0600 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 24W FROM  
NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND  
10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE  
ENVELOPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART  
OF THE WAVE.  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 40W FROM 01N  
TO 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE FROM 03-07N BETWEEN 36-43W.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 57W SOUTH OF  
16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE  
AXIS, MAINLY INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA, SURINAME, AND GUYANA.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 81W SOUTH  
OF 21N TO CENTRAL PANAMA AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 05N. IT  
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED  
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13-17N BETWEEN 81-84W.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER  
OF MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH  
15N24W AND TO 05N30W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS  
TO 07N39W, AND CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR  
08N41W TO JUST EAST OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N54W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07-09N BETWEEN 48-52W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS A  
LARGE AREA E OF 35W BETWEEN 02-15N.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS RIDING ACROSS THE  
GULF. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 23N AND W OF 88W, INCLUDING THE  
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS SEEING MAINLY GENTLE  
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT ACROSS THE  
BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS  
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN  
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MOST OF  
THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS,  
AND MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS.  
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70-80W. SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER  
OF THE CARIBBEAN RANGE FROM 3-6 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC  
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH  
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS  
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N68W TO 24N79W. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH IS OVER THIS GENERAL AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE  
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER AN AREA  
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. FARTHER TO THE EAST, ANOTHER  
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N43W TO 23N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL,  
CURRENTLY INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA, CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WINDS  
IN THE W ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF 77W. SEAS ARE 3-6  
FT IN THIS AREA.  
 
ELSEWHERE, RIDGING STEMMING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.  
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF  
20N AND E OF 35W, WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN THIS REGION AS WELL.  
WINDS ARE LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS.  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL N OF 20N AND E  
OF 50W, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER  
ANTILLES AND THE NEARBY CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THE REMAINDER OF THE  
ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT  
PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH  
MON, AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHANTAL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AWAY  
FROM THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD  
TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL  
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E TO  
SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 
 
ADAMS  
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