855
AXNT20 KNHC 070559
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUL 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 24W FROM
NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND
10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE
ENVELOPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE WAVE.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 40W FROM 01N
TO 18N. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 03-07N BETWEEN 36-43W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 57W SOUTH OF
16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE
AXIS, MAINLY INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA, SURINAME, AND GUYANA.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 81W SOUTH
OF 21N TO CENTRAL PANAMA AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 05N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13-17N BETWEEN 81-84W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER
OF MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
15N24W AND TO 05N30W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS
TO 07N39W, AND CONTINUES TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
08N41W TO JUST EAST OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07-09N BETWEEN 48-52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS A
LARGE AREA E OF 35W BETWEEN 02-15N.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS RIDING ACROSS THE
GULF. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 23N AND W OF 88W, INCLUDING THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS SEEING MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT ACROSS THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MOST OF
THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
AND MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70-80W. SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN RANGE FROM 3-6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N68W TO 24N79W. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THIS GENERAL AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER AN AREA
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. FARTHER TO THE EAST, ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N43W TO 23N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL,
CURRENTLY INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA, CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WINDS
IN THE W ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF 77W. SEAS ARE 3-6
FT IN THIS AREA.
ELSEWHERE, RIDGING STEMMING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF
20N AND E OF 35W, WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
WINDS ARE LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL N OF 20N AND E
OF 50W, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE NEARBY CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-6 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
MON, AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHANTAL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD
TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E TO
SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
ADAMS
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