334  
AXNT20 KNHC 071010  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC MON JUL 7 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 26W FROM  
NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10  
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE  
WAVE.  
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 42W FROM 01N  
TO 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 59W SOUTH OF  
16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE.  
 
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 83W SOUTH OF  
21N TO W PANAMA AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 05N, MOVING  
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13-17N BETWEEN 81-86W.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 21N16W TO 05N30W.  
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 08N40W, THEN RESUMES W OF A  
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N43W TO 09N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02-06N BETWEEN 25W-35W, AND FROM 07N-11N  
BETWEEN 50W-58W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS RIDING ACROSS THE  
GULF. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 23N AND W OF 88W, INCLUDING THE  
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS SEEING MAINLY GENTLE  
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE  
BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS  
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN  
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MOST OF  
THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS,  
AND MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS.  
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70-80W. SEAS ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-  
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT,  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE  
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N69W TO 23N70W. A MID TO  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THIS GENERAL AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO  
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER TROUGH  
EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 27N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, CURRENTLY  
INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA, CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WINDS IN THE W  
ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH S  
TO SW WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF 77W. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THIS  
AREA.  
 
ELSEWHERE, RIDGING STEMMING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.  
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF  
20N AND E OF 35W, WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. WINDS  
ARE NEAR-GALE FORCE IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL N OF 20N AND E OF 50W, AS  
WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE  
NEARBY CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS SEEING  
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH  
TODAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHANTAL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AWAY  
FROM THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD  
TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN  
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG  
E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI  
NIGHT.  
 

 
ERA  
 
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