334
AXNT20 KNHC 071010
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JUL 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 26W FROM
NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
WAVE.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 42W FROM 01N
TO 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 59W SOUTH OF
16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 83W SOUTH OF
21N TO W PANAMA AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13-17N BETWEEN 81-86W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 21N16W TO 05N30W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 08N40W, THEN RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N43W TO 09N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02-06N BETWEEN 25W-35W, AND FROM 07N-11N
BETWEEN 50W-58W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS RIDING ACROSS THE
GULF. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 23N AND W OF 88W, INCLUDING THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS SEEING MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL, ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MOST OF
THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE BASIN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
AND MOSTLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70-80W. SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT,
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N69W TO 23N70W. A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THIS GENERAL AREA. THIS IS HELPING TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 27N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, CURRENTLY
INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA, CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE WINDS IN THE W
ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH S
TO SW WINDS N OF 25N AND W OF 77W. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THIS
AREA.
ELSEWHERE, RIDGING STEMMING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF
20N AND E OF 35W, WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. WINDS
ARE NEAR-GALE FORCE IN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL N OF 20N AND E OF 50W, AS
WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE
NEARBY CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS SEEING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
TODAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. CHANTAL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD
TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG
E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.
ERA
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