091
AXNT20 KNHC 071807
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON JUL 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 27W FROM JUST WEST OF
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT.
DRIER AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE INFILTRATING THIS WAVE. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W
AND 30W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 42W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 60W FROM NEAR GUADELOUPE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE BORDER OF VENEZUELA AND GUYANA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W FROM SOUTH OF
WESTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD ACROSS HONDURAS, NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL,
AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA,COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
06N29W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM 06N29W TO
09N42W, AND FROM 09N45W TO NORTH OF GUYANA AT 09N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N
TO 12N BETWEEN 18N AND THE GUIANA-SIERRA LEONE COAST, AND NEAR AND
UP TO 120 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN GULF. A 1014 LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. A MODEST 1019 MB HIGH AT
THE CENTRAL GULF IS MAINTAINING GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODEST HIGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1025 MB BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TRADE-WIND PATTERN
FOR MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVERGENT TRADES ARE CAUSING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. FRESH TO
STRONG ENE TO E WINDS WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT AT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
LINGER NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E
TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 28N AND BETWEEN 54W AND 74W. REFER
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE
BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC SECTION. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 3 TO 4 FT
SEAS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. OTHERWISE, MODERATE WITH
LOCALLY FRESH ENE TO SE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 77W. WEST OF 77W AND NORTH OF
20N, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT
4 TO 6 FT EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
TONIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD
TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E TO
SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
CHAN
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