932
AXNT20 KNHC 080556
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE JUL 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 31W FROM
02-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 48W FROM
03-18N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEEN WITH
THIS WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 65W FROM THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SEEN WITH THIS WAVE.
A NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 88W FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 03N88W. THIS WAVE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER SE MEXICO INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, BELIZE, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, AND EL SALVADOR, WHERE
NUMEROUS STRONG STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N30W. AN
ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 06N32W TO 07N47W, WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A
TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM
0849W TO 09N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG AND WITHIN
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS TRIGGERING
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A
WEAK 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE FAR SE GULF IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF S OF 24N, WITH SEAS OF
2-5 FT ALSO OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE GULF N OF 24N,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LEADING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS, AS
WELL AS THE COASTS OF HAITI AND CUBA. A 1028 MB BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TRADE- WIND PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS WITH 6-8 FT
SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THE
EASTERN, SW, AND NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
SEEING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 30N AND BETWEEN 64W
AND 75W. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A RIDGE STEMMING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N36W, AND
ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 34N57W. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLANTIC
N OF 10N AND E OF 75W. WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG IN
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS, ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF HISPANIOLA,
AND ALSO THROUGH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE OCCURRING W OF 75W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page