750  
AXNT20 KNHC 081011  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 33W FROM  
02-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE  
AXIS.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 50W FROM  
03-18N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED  
WITH THIS WAVE.  
 
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 68W FROM THE  
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.  
 
A NW CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 89W FROM THE  
YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 03N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
OCCURRING OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE YUCATAN  
CHANNEL.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF  
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N32W. THE  
ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 06N34W TO 08N48W, WHERE IT IS BROKEN BY A  
TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 08N51W  
TO 09N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG  
THE SEGMENTS OF THE ITCZ.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS TRIGGERING  
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO FRESH E  
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF S OF 24N, WITH SEAS OF 2-5 FT ALSO OCCURRING  
IN THIS REGION. ACROSS THE GULF N OF 24N, GENTLE TO MODERATE  
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS  
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN  
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LEADING  
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE ADJACENT NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS, AS  
WELL AS THE COASTS OF HAITI AND CUBA. A 1027 MB BERMUDA HIGH  
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TRADE-WIND PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE  
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS ARE  
EVIDENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE  
OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. MODERATE TO FRESH  
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN, SW, AND NW  
CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS SEEING GENTLE TO MODERATE  
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE  
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN  
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT  
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO 30N AND BETWEEN 68W  
AND 77W. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE  
OF A RIDGE STEMMING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N35W, AND  
ANOTHER 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N58W. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLANTIC  
N OF 10N AND E OF 75W. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG IN BETWEEN THE  
CANARY ISLANDS, ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF HISPANIOLA, AND ALSO  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS  
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING W OF 75W AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON  
TROUGH AND ITCZ.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO  
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK.  
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR  
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA  
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  
 

 
ERA  
 
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