601  
AXNT20 KNHC 081823  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1815 UTC TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1600 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 34W FROM 17N  
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
OBSERVED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD,  
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT . NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR  
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 69W FROM THE EASTERN  
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL VENEZUELA.  
 
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W FROM THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. IT IS  
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FOUND  
NEAR THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS GRADUALLY CATCHING UP WITH  
ANOTHER WAVE FARTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND THEY MIGHT  
MERGE LATER ON.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF MAURITANIA  
NEAR EL MAMGHAR, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD PASSING JUST SOUTH OF  
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO 05N36W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-  
NORTHWESTWARD FROM 05N36W TO 09N50W, THEN WESTWARD FROM 09N52W TO  
NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA BORDER AT 10N60W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION I IS FLARING UP SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH  
FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN THE SENEGAL-GUIANA-SIERRA LEONE COAST, AND  
ALSO JUST WEST OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.  
 
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING  
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR PANAMA AND  
COSTA RICA.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS  
TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF  
CAMPECHE AND NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISANA COAST. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE  
RIDGE RUNS WESTWARD FROM A 1020 MB HIGH AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF  
TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO  
GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-  
CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4  
FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PREVAIL  
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL  
PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN  
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
A LARGE, ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION AT THE CENTRAL BASIN, AND NEAR THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL  
CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS  
AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT EXIST AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO  
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE WESTERN  
BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO E WINDS WITH SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT  
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC  
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH  
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN BASIN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND  
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH IN THE VICINITY, TWO SURFACE  
TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 69W AND 79W.  
REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT  
THE BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A  
1028 MB BERMUDA HIGH IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS  
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 67W. TO THE WEST, MODERATE WITH  
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT NORTH OF  
26N BETWEEN 67W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FARTHER  
SOUTH FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, FRESH  
WITH LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE NOTED. FOR THE  
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 12N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER  
ANTILLES, AND NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W, GENTLE TO MODERATE  
NNE TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT EXIST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE SE TO S  
WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE  
TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE  
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT  
FOR FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF  
HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.  
 

 
 
CHAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page