255
AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED JUL 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 37W FROM 04-17N
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 55W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 75W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD
TO INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AS WELL
AS NEARBY COASTAL PORTIONS OF CUBA, JAMAICA, AND HAITI.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS TO 05N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
FROM 05N38W TO 09N53W, THEN WESTWARD FROM 10N56W TO ACROSS
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND INTO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE, AS WELL AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,
AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N. OTHERWISE, A 1020 MB HIGH IS INTERACTING
WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS IN
AREAS OF CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
GULF BETWEEN 21-25N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE 3-6 FT IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OFF THE SW COAST OF
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-11 FT ARE
ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN PER RECENT ALTIMETER AND
BUOY DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH MAINLY MODERATE ENE WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT
SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY, TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND CAICOS,
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 24-31N BETWEEN 72-77W. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NORTH OF THE AREA EXTEND RIDGING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC N OF 10N. WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC IS SEEING GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ADAMS
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