255  
AXNT20 KNHC 090546  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0615 UTC WED JUL 9 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0600 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 37W FROM 04-17N  
SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 55W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD  
TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 75W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD  
TO INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT.  
THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AS  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER  
THE FAR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AS WELL  
AS NEARBY COASTAL PORTIONS OF CUBA, JAMAICA, AND HAITI.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR  
14N17W, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO  
VERDE ISLANDS TO 05N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD  
FROM 05N38W TO 09N53W, THEN WESTWARD FROM 10N56W TO ACROSS  
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND INTO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE, AS WELL AS A  
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS TRIGGERING  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,  
AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N. OTHERWISE, A 1020 MB HIGH IS INTERACTING  
WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG E  
WINDS IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS IN  
AREAS OF CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
GULF BETWEEN 21-25N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS  
ARE 3-6 FT IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS  
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN  
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN  
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  
 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OFF THE SW COAST OF  
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-11 FT ARE  
ONGOING IN THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN PER RECENT ALTIMETER AND  
BUOY DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE IN THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH MAINLY MODERATE ENE WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT  
SEAS ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC  
RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH  
TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS  
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY, TWO SURFACE  
TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND CAICOS,  
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 24-31N BETWEEN 72-77W. REFER TO THE  
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING  
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  
 
A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS NORTH OF THE AREA EXTEND RIDGING ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
ATLANTIC N OF 10N. WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE  
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND  
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC IS SEEING GENTLE  
TO MODERATE TRADES AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO  
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK.  
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR  
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA  
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.  
 

 
ADAMS  
 
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