017  
AXNT20 KNHC 091018  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC WED JUL 9 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 39W FROM 04-17N  
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS  
RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.  
 
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 57W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD  
TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.  
 
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD,  
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING  
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
ONGOING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN  
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AS WELL AS NEARBY COASTAL PORTIONS  
OF CUBA, JAMAICA, AND HAITI.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W, THEN CONTINUES  
TO 05N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM 05N41W TO  
06N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 11N AND  
E OF 28W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE, AS WELL AS A  
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS TRIGGERING  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,  
AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
THE GULF S OF 27N. OTHERWISE, A 1021 MB HIGH IS INTERACTING WITH  
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN  
THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS IN AREAS OF  
CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF  
BETWEEN 21-25N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT  
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS  
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN  
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES  
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OFF THE SW COAST OF  
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN  
THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN PER RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA.  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE EASTERN  
CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE ENE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND  
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO  
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE  
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES  
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY, TWO SURFACE  
TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND CAICOS,  
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 24-31N BETWEEN 72-77W.  
 
A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS NORTH OF THE AREA EXTEND RIDGING ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
ATLANTIC N OF 10N. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE NORTHERN  
COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHERN  
BAHAMAS. MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC IS SEEING GENTLE TO  
MODERATE TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO  
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK.  
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS,  
EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF  
HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.  
 

 
ERA  
 
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