017
AXNT20 KNHC 091018
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED JUL 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 39W FROM 04-17N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 57W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, AS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ONGOING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AS WELL AS NEARBY COASTAL PORTIONS
OF CUBA, JAMAICA, AND HAITI.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W, THEN CONTINUES
TO 05N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM 05N41W TO
06N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 11N AND
E OF 28W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COMBINED WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE, AS WELL AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,
AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE GULF S OF 27N. OTHERWISE, A 1021 MB HIGH IS INTERACTING WITH
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN
THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS IN AREAS OF
CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
BETWEEN 21-25N, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND THEN
DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OFF THE SW COAST OF
CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ONGOING IN
THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN PER RECENT ALTIMETER AND BUOY DATA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE ENE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY, TWO SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS, THE TURKS AND CAICOS,
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 24-31N BETWEEN 72-77W.
A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS NORTH OF THE AREA EXTEND RIDGING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC N OF 10N. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. MUCH OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC IS SEEING GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS,
EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ERA
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