816
AXNT20 KNHC 091807
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED JUL 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1750 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 41W FROM 06-17N,
MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 59W FROM
19N SOUTHWARD TO GUYANA, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 82W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ONGOING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W, THEN CONTINUES
TO 11N29W TO 10N37W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM
09N44W TO 10N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N
TO 13N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N96W SE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER THE E MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO ONGOING IN THE NW GULF, INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A 2020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N85W AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN, THUS SUPPORTING LIGHT
TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. LOCALLY
MODERATE E WINDS ARE IN THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO
JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE OVER ADJACENT WATERS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. SEAS
BASIN-WIDE ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND
DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN.
A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
CONTINUE TO GENERATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS RESULTING
IN FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO
STRONG EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT
NIGHT, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
E OF 65W, AND MODERATE TO FRESH ESE WINDS BETWEEN 65W AND 78W,
EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SEAS
ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS. OTHERWISE, A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHICH IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA SEABOARD, THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS ADJACENT
WATERS BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N AFTERWARD. THE
RELATED GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT AND FRESH WINDS SUN.
RAMOS
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