032  
AXNT20 KNHC 101809  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1815 UTC THU JUL 10 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1800 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 22W FROM 06N-16N, MOVING WEST AT  
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N-13N  
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 33W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 37W, FROM 06N-18N, MOVING WEST  
AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN  
36W AND 43W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 70W FROM 20N TO NORTHERN  
VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER  
HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 86W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 08N86W, AND IS MOVING WEST AT  
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W, THEN CONTINUES  
TO 12N29W TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 10N53W TO  
10N62W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT  
CONVECTION.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS  
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR  
26N86W. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER E MEXICO, THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN, WHICH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE  
VARIABLE WINDS BASIN-WIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. OTHERWISE,  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE FLOW AND  
UPPER LEVEL WIND DYNAMIC, ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED  
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 94W, THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND THE  
COASTAL WATERS OF THE NE GULF.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO  
EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND  
DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES, HEAVY  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND  
COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON  
TROUGH. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW  
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO GENERATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS  
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS  
OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH  
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE  
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT SEAS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH  
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE  
TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS  
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH  
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT,  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE  
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES  
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 30N75W SW TO  
ANDROS ISLANDS, AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS  
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AS WELL AS N OF 28N  
BETWEEN 69W AND 79W. ELSEWHERE, THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH, WHICH IS SUPPORTING  
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS BETWEEN 20W AND 70W, AND FRESH TO  
STRONG E TO SE WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO  
FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W  
AND 78W WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE NW  
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING  
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR 31N60W TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE  
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI  
THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AND BACK SOUTH TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS  
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT AND FRESH WINDS  
SUN AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL  
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH FRI.  
 
 
RAMOS  
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