032
AXNT20 KNHC 101809
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU JUL 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 22W FROM 06N-16N, MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N-13N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 33W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 37W, FROM 06N-18N, MOVING WEST
AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN
36W AND 43W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 70W FROM 20N TO NORTHERN
VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 86W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 08N86W, AND IS MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W, THEN CONTINUES
TO 12N29W TO 10N39W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N39W TO 10N53W TO
10N62W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
CONVECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
26N86W. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER E MEXICO, THERE IS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN, WHICH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
VARIABLE WINDS BASIN-WIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. OTHERWISE,
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE FLOW AND
UPPER LEVEL WIND DYNAMIC, ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 94W, THE SE GULF S OF 25N AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND
DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES, HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO GENERATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT,
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 30N75W SW TO
ANDROS ISLANDS, AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AS WELL AS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 69W AND 79W. ELSEWHERE, THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH, WHICH IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS BETWEEN 20W AND 70W, AND FRESH TO
STRONG E TO SE WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. MODERATE TO
FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W
AND 78W WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN THE NW
COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR 31N60W TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI
THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AND BACK SOUTH TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT AND FRESH WINDS
SUN AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH FRI.
RAMOS
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