806
AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUL 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 23W FROM 06N-17N, MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 26W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 37W, FROM 08N-20N, MOVING WEST
AT AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
09N-11N BETWEEN 38W-41W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 72W FROM 20N TO N VENEZUELA,
MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 88W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC TO 07N88W, AND IS MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF HONDURAS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC FROM COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
16N17W TO 09N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N44W TO 08N59W ALONG
COASTAL GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 26W.
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 08N80W TO 10N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF 11N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N89W, LEADING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
NOTED NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-92W.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS
INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE BASIN.
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH NORTH OF THE
AREA TO LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, 4-6 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN, AND
2-4 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY
FRESH EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT
NIGHT, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE BASIN.
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 30N IN THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN A 1026
MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 31N60W AND A 1025 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 32N28W.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES
NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS CAUSING ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES JUST
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND OVER SE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE
CANARY ISLANDS AND COASTAL WESTERN SAHARA. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT OVER
FORECAST WATERS. ADDITIONALLY FOR CONVECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 78W-80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER CUBA TO THE NW BAHAMAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR 31N60W TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SHIFT NORTH
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AND BACK SOUTH TO SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH
SAT AND FRESH WINDS SUN AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND TO NEAR 23N78W IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI.
LANDSEA
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