295
AXNT20 KNHC 111609
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI JUL 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED TO 21W BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 18N. THE WESTWARD MOTION IS AN
UNCERTAIN 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO
16N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 39W, FROM 08N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST AT AROUND 5-10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS
TIME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W FROM 07N TO 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
63W AND 69W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 79W FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA
NORTH TO 20N, MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NORTH TO 12N WEST
OF 77W. THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KINGSTON, JAMAICA GREATLY
AIDED THE ANALYSIS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR DAKAR, SENEGAL, AND
EXTENDS TO 07N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N42W TO GUYANA NEAR
06N58W. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. THE
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA BY MON AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
GULF ON TUE, ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENTLY RECEIVED SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA. AS A RESULT OF THESE WINDS, SEAS ARE 4-7 FT
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SEAS
ARE 2-4 FT IN LIGHT WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IN MOST WATERS, WITH 4-7 FT
SEAS. TRADES ARE PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS ON APPROACH TO
THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 16N AND WEST OF 50W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A
RIDGE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE RELATED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH SUN THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN INCREASE MODESTLY TUE.
MAHONEY
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