567
AXNT20 KNHC 121814
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT JUL 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FLORIDA:
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF AMERICA. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 24W FROM THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 16N AND
BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 41W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD,
AND MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FLARING UP FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 73W FROM JUST SOUTH OF
HAITI SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. IT IS MOVING WEST AT
15 KT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W FROM SOUTH OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA INTO THE
EAST PACIFIC. IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR EL MAMGHAR, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TWO
1014 MB LOWS NEAR 12N22W AND 10N40W TO 08N42W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 08N42W TO JUST NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 05.5N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR AND UP TO 250 NM SOUTH
FO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 28W AND 45W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 25N FROM THE WESTERN TO THE EASTERN
GULF. OTHERWISE, A 1022 MB HIGH AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 1 TO 2 FT SEAS AT THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
TUE. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG ALONG THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND
DAILY AND SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA ON MON AND
DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE THROUGH WED,
ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A 1024 MB BERMUDA HIGH SUSTAINS A TRADE-WIND REGIME FOR THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR CONVECTION
IN THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG ENE TO E WINDS WITH SEAS AT 6 TO 9
FT ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH ENE
TO E WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
THROUGH WED. FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PULSING TO
LOCALLY STRONG SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CAUSING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS AT THE BEGINNING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. A BOARD SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1025 MB AT 29N30W TO BEYOND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. GENTLE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT ARE
PRESENT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COAST. TO THE SOUTH FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 35W AND THE
BAHAMAS/LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS
AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND
SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED, PRODUCING A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE, THEN
PULSING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE FLORIDA ON MON AND
DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA ON TUE
ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH S TO
SE WINDS ACROSS THE NW ZONES TUE THROUGH WED.
CHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page