311
AXNT20 KNHC 131754
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN JUL 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W FROM 03-18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, FROM 03-12N BETWEEN 34-43W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W FROM 03-18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OBSERVED FROM 00-12N BETWEEN 33-52W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87.5W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ALONG THE NORTH END OF THE WAVE
AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W, CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N23W TO
10N31W TO 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N44W TO 09N52W. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN S OF 13N AND W OF 75W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL US ARE LEADING TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN
83-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE, NEAR THE SOUTH END OF A
DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED IN THE REGION. RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF SUSTAINS MODERATE OR WEAKER E WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR AREAS S OF 24N AND W OF 90W,
WHERE SE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH AND SEAS ARE 2-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE GULF
THIS MORNING, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE BASIN. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD
AND INTO THE NW GULF BY WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF FLORIDA, TO
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON TUE,
THEN CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU,
ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. OTHERWISE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE 1010 MB COLOMBIA LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN, ALONG WITH SEAS OF
6-10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 69W WILL
SHIFT NE AND COLLAPSE TODAY, LEAVING A WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGE EAST OF
75W THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION AND INTO FLORIDA TUE THROUGH THU. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE TUE THROUGH THU. FRESH E
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TUE,
PULSING TO LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL NW PORTIONS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N65W TO 25N67W IS SITTING
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 24N67W. THIS
RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
FROM 20-29N BETWEEN 63-70W. TO THE NORTHWEST, A SURFACE LOW
ANALYZED NEAR 35N77W IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH, WITH THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE TROUGH ACTING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS AREAS N OF 25N AND W OF 74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
STEMMING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N39W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FROM 17-27N BETWEEN THE W
COAST OF AFRICA AND 30W, AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS.
SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE CONFIRMED IN THIS REGION VIA ALTIMETER DATA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 60W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO FLORIDA TUE THROUGH THU. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST, AND BUILD INTO THE WATERS
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MON AND OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF AMERICA TUE THROUGH WED.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS WEST OF 75W TODAY
THROUGH TUE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE NW ZONES TUE THROUGH EARLY THU.
ADAMS
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