621
AXNT20 KNHC 141014
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON JUL 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W-45W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 09.5N AND BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W-55W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 55.5W AND
SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W, CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10.5N24W TO
08N46W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 05.5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 12N E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA, AND FROM
01N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 35W AND 57W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW GULF IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF 91W. IN THE NE GULF, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA AND
NEARBY GULF WATERS EAST OF 83.5W. MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER WESTERN YUCATAN HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES.
AT THE SURFACE, A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR
27N86W IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE TO SE WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN, WEST OF 90W. THIS WAS
CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 2-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD AND INTO THE NW GULF BY WED. IN THE
MEANTIME, ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND NE FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON TUE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THIS WEEK WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND THEN
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF, ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS, CUBA AND HISPANIOLA, TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 12N. A JET SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 78W. ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING INTO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE
WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 29N TO NEAR 75W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16N, AND ACROSS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS ARE 6-9 FT AND 5-7
FT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE N OF THE AREA
ALONG 29N TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC AND INTO
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH THU. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT PULSING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BASIN
WED THROUGH FRI. FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN WED THROUGH FRI. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL NW PORTIONS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED TONIGHT FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A 1014 MB LOW CENTER WAS ANALYZED NEAR 31N78.5W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND
IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AND PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 30N
SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. TO THE EAST OF 76W, SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE WATERS
NORTH OF 23N TO 65W, DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REST OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ON A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT SOUTH
OF 24N AND BETWEEN 25W AND 65W. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS SEAS
OF 6-9 FT ARE NOTED EAST OF 25W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WEAK RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF 75W TODAY. ELONGATED LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST EXTENDING TO OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA BY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL THEN
BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO FLORIDA TUE THROUGH FRI
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WATERS WEST
OF 75W THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE NW
ZONES TUE THROUGH EARLY THU.
STRIPLING
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